2024-25 Mavericks Player Cards: Dereck Lively II

The sky is the limit for D-Live, but how soon can he reach it?

Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images

This is the first player analysis in our 2024-25 season preview series. Dereck Lively II is the most exciting young player on the Mavericks since Luka Dončić, so it wasn't a surprise that when I asked you who to start this series with, he came out on top. The plan for this series is to cover all key Mavericks rotation players, using the same format to keep it fun and engaging.

As always, I’ll appreciate any feedback on the analysis, format, or anything else (leave a comment or send me a direct message on Substack or Twitter).

Let’s digg in!

2023-24 key stats: 55 games played, 42 games started | 23.5 minutes, 8.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.4 blocks per game | 74.7 percent field goal

Projected role in 2023-24: Starting center, playing 26 to 31 minutes per game.

Archetype on offense: Rim-rolling big

Archetype on defense: Paint protector, defensive anchor

A stat that stands out: The most obvious one is the field goal percentage. At 74.7 percent, Lively would have led the NBA in field goal percentage; however, with 221 made field goals, he didn't reach the threshold of at least 300 field goals to qualify (his teammate Daniel Gafford was the official leader at 72.5 percent with 348 made field goals). The efficiency speaks volumes about Lively's athleticism and finishing skill. Dwight Powell has been a solid partner for Dončić in the pick and roll for years, but Lively (and Gafford) showed what happens when you add an elite finisher to the equation. And Lively is elite: he ranked first in the NBA in made dunks per 36 minutes at 3.9 and led all players with 51 dunks in the playoffs.

However, the most telling advanced stat for Lively is the +13.0 points per 100 possessions differential with which the Mavericks outscored opponents in the playoffs when Lively was on the floor. This speaks volumes about the unprecedented impact a 20-year-old rookie center had in the postseason.

A stat that makes me think: Lively shot just 50.6 percent from the free-throw line in his first NBA season. His corner three in Game 4 of the NBA Finals was probably the highlight and the most exciting moment of that series—one that made me and plenty of Mavericks fans dream about the possibility of Lively making outside shots and spreading the floor as a stretch big. But his free-throw percentage (and the fact that 84 percent of his shots were at the rim) makes you wonder how real that potential is—or how soon the shooting can develop. I don’t recall many bigs with such low free-throw rates becoming good three-point shooters—a topic for a potential future deep-dive analysis.

Key play that intrigued (and I would like to see more of): Lively is such a raw prospect with so much potential that there are plenty of things to choose from. The aforementioned corner three in the playoffs is the most obvious. Another intriguing area is his ability to seal a smaller defender in the paint, post up, and finish with a hook shot—something Nico Harrison highlighted during his Summer League interview. I believe those skills will develop, but they will take time. Personally, what I'm most interested in watching next season is how Lively continues to grow as a playmaker and finisher out of the short roll. Last December, we saw glimpses of that when Lively made three incredible plays against OKC in that role (I called them the most important plays of the season at the time). Six months later, he repeated the same play in the 4th quarter of an elimination playoff game against the same opponent. Another proof of just how quick and willing a learner he is.

Quick decision-making and the ability to pass on the move stood out to me when I was watching Lively’s college tape after the draft. If he can continue to grow as a decision-maker and finisher, it will become increasingly difficult for teams to trap and blitz Dončić in the pick-and-roll.

Key question: How big is the leap in his sophomore year?

This is the most exciting question among all Mavericks players I'll cover in this series. It’s the one I’ll spend the most words and analysis on, and one that will likely require another deep dive in the future. Lively's ceiling has been breaking the mold and my brain ever since he showed early in his rookie year just how unique and special a player he is. As I did back last December for a D Magazine analysis, I’ve done now—I crunched the numbers for the past 25 seasons to find similar seasons for a rookie center starting the season at age 19. I analyzed per game, per 36 minutes, and advanced stats, and ran similarity mapping (which I might explain in future analytics articles for paid subscribers) to find the closest comparisons for Lively and how they progressed in their sophomore year in the NBA. Here is the table with the players I used for Lively comparisons, along with their rookie and sophomore season stats.

Source: basketball-reference

Only four players in my comparison entered their rookie year at age 19: Andre Drummond, Andrew Bynum, Jarrett Allen, and Tyson Chandler. All of them showed improvement in their second year, with Drummond and Bynum making significant leaps. Most of the others who entered the NBA at an older age also improved in their sophomore campaigns. My similarity models mostly use data that measure scoring, rebounding, and shot-blocking, but they don’t capture true defensive impact, mobility, athleticism, or maturity. You could say that Lively is a longer and more athletic iteration of Clint Capela or Jarrett Allen, or a more mature, higher basketball IQ version of Drummond, Bynum and DeAndre Jordan. When it comes to agility, the ability to switch, the drive, and the communication skills needed to play the role of a defensive anchor, Lively's mentor Tyson Chandler and Joakim Noah are the two comparisons that intrigue me the most. A high bar, since both are past Defensive Player of the Year award winners, but not impossible to imagine for Lively after his impressive playoff showing. Those two started to appear on All-Defense voting ballots around age 24, so Lively has plenty of time to get there.

What’s next (what to expect next season): The conservative choice would be the level Allen reached in his sophomore year (26 minutes, 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game). However, Lively has shown that his learning curve is much faster than your typical big man, so Bynum's second-year stat line of 29 minutes, 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game wouldn't shock me. But stat lines are not the most important thing, and Gafford gives the Mavericks the luxury of not overtaxing Lively, who had several injuries in his rookie campaign. What will really matter, and what I would like to see, is continued progress in Lively's game. Getting stronger so he can seal smaller players in the post or at least bully them on the offensive glass like Rudy Gobert or Capela do. This, along with continuous improvement on the short roll, will make the tactic of defending Lively with a wing player, as the Thunder and Celtics employed in the playoffs, much more difficult.

On defense, I’d like to see Jason Kidd unleash Lively even more. We’ve seen him hold his own when switching onto some of the best ball-handlers like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Jayson Tatum in the playoffs. We also saw him wreak havoc in a roamer role, protecting the paint like Gobert, Kristaps Porzingis, or Jaren Jackson Jr. With a full rookie season and a deep playoff run under his belt—almost like an additional season—Lively should be much more comfortable with the speed of the NBA game, reading offenses, and understanding player and coaching tendencies. Last season, Lively's role on defense was simplified, and rightfully so. He was a 19-year-old rookie playing the most important defensive position on the floor.

I think he's ready for more so his talents can be maximized. If that happens, the Mavericks will finally have a player who could make one of the All-Defense teams or at least get serious consideration—something that hasn't happened in more than a decade. Lively fully growing into the defensive anchor role is also the best way for the Mavericks to remain a strong defensive team, even if they lean more into shooting and spacing with Klay Thompson in the mix.