5 Early August Questions About the Mavericks' Rotation

Depth brings flexibility, but also tough choices

Aug 06, 2024

We're in the quietest part of the NBA calendar. The draft and offseason are done, and we're still almost two months away from Media Day on September 30, with the Mavericks planning to travel for training camp in Las Vegas shortly after, as per Marc Stein's report. But this also means that the Mavericks' roster is more or less set, so we can have a first look at how the rotation will look once the first preseason games start.

Why a first look? Because I plan to do rotation checks during crucial points of the season (after preseason, after key trades, trade deadline, and before the playoffs).

Before we start this first installment, let me lay out some ground rules for how I'll conduct this. First, this is an overview of how the rotation looks now; a lot can change before the season starts (injuries, other moves). Second, I used positions as I see players on offense (e.g., Luka Dončić = point guard). Traditional positions are becoming less relevant with positionless basketball, so more important than positions are the four tiers:

Starters
Bench (key rotation players)
End of bench (fringe rotation players)
Others (end of roster and G-League/development guys)

Lastly and most importantly, this is an overview of how I think the rotation will look, not how I think it should (I will share some thoughts throughout the article).

That being said, let's look at the Mavericks' depth chart as of early August 2024.

Question 1 - Is Klay Thompson starting?

This question seems to have the most obvious answer because I would be really surprised if the newly acquired four-time champion and one of the biggest free-agent signings in Mavericks' history doesn't start on opening night. But it's also the most important and difficult one long term, and could have the most impact on how next season plays out.

I think the best long-term role for Thompson, who will turn 35 next February, is as an instant offense, spark plug sixth man off the bench. A super-charged Tim Hardaway Jr.'s role, a more reliable shooter with less defensive liability, and still closing most games. This would allow Jason Kidd to stagger Thompson's minutes with one of Dončić or Kyrie Irving and remove the pressure and wear of defending the best opposing guard or wing scorer from the opening tip. I expect we'll get to this question at some point, but it likely won't be at the start of the season. Not after how the 'Klay off the bench' experiment played out last season in the Bay. Plus, we know how much respect the Mavericks head coach has for the veterans. If you look at Kidd's tenure in Dallas, you can see he treats the regular season as a lab to experiment, to feel out the rotation and roles, but typically starts leaning toward veteran players early before making adjustments later. Remember the JaVale McGee starting experiment in 2022-23 or how long it took to reduce Hardaway's role last season. So, my hunch is that Kidd starts with experienced players (see the next questions about Daniel Gafford and Spencer Dinwiddie), sees how the season starts and how injuries play out, and then revises some of his choices after Christmas.

Question 2 - Who will be the starting center?

Another question with an obvious answer, but I'm not sure we'll see it at the start of the season. Watching the playoffs, it was clear that even as a 20-year-old rookie, Dereck Lively II is a much better player than Gafford. If you need a reminder or a data reaffirmation: the Mavericks outscored opponents by +13.0 points per 100 possessions in 460 minutes with Lively on the floor, and were -14.8 in 445 minutes with Gafford. Thanks to his length, athleticism, and decision-making, the 7-foot-1 fan favorite is a better option on the short roll, a more adaptable defender for various schemes, a more disruptive rim protector, and a much more effective defensive rebounder. The latter was especially problematic for Gafford in the playoffs (and throughout his career), as he often struggled against bigger, more physical bigs.

There is no doubt Lively is the future. The progress he makes (how big of a leap we see) during his sophomore season will likely have the biggest impact on the Mavericks' ceiling, regardless of all other additions and roster upgrades. We'll find out if Kidd takes the conservative route with Lively as well, continuing to start Gafford to maintain his confidence, keep him engaged and aggressive, and to reduce the pressure on Lively. However, even if Gafford keeps starting for a while, I anticipate Lively's minutes to rise from the 22 to 23 minutes per game he averaged in the regular season and playoffs into the high twenties.

Question 3 - Who is the third ball handler?

Here is another upcoming player vs. veteran experience dilemma. Although Spencer Dinwiddie, at 31, is just two years older than Dante Exum, he has played almost three times as many minutes in the NBA as his Aussie counterpart. Despite Exum's surprising first season with the Mavericks, his playoff struggles and Dinwiddie's much larger track record of being able to adapt to different roles (spot-up shooter or primary ball-handler/ISO scorer when needed) make me think he'll get the nod initially.

This will be one of the more interesting decisions to watch early, to see if Kidd leans toward offense and shooting with Dinwiddie, or defense and pace with Exum. Exum was great in the regular season as a point-of-attack defender, and personally, I would love to see the Mavericks continue with the all-defense bench units featuring Lively, Josh Green, Exum, and Maxi Kleber as the first subs off the bench we saw last season, with Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall in the mix. On the other hand, there is logic in having more shooting and scoring off the bench. I wrote in detail about the Mavericks prioritizing spacing and shooting in the offseason, and Dinwiddie is a more proven high-volume three-point shooter than the often hesitant Exum.

After doing a deep dive on Grimes, I think he's a 'J-Kidd type' of player, which could make it tough for both Dinwiddie and Exum to crack the rotation early. It's good to see the Mavericks have depth and flexibility, but it also means some difficult decisions will have to be made.

Question 4 - Minutes and role of Maxi Kleber?

We're getting into the minutes of the 9th to 13th men in the rotation here, so I appreciate it if you're still sticking with me. But despite all the depth, the Mavericks don't have many proven alternatives for the backup power forward spot, other than the 32-year-old German. Kleber had another injury-riddled season, playing in only 43 games last season after totaling only 37 in 2022-23, and suffered another setback after a nasty fall in the playoffs. Last season was further proof of how hard it is to find a replacement for his archetype, but also that it is not realistic to count on him filling an extended role.

I expect the Mavericks to keep both Kleber’s regular season game appearances and minutes low (he averaged only 20.3 minutes per game last season, the lowest since his rookie year in 2017-18). The 6-foot-7 Marshall getting some of the backup power forward minutes behind P.J. Washington is the most obvious alternative, given all the depth at the guard and wing spots. It's not Marshall's natural position and a role he has played seldomly in the past, but we've seen a similar approach with Derrick Jones Jr. last year. Another less proven option is to give one of the younger, unproven wings an opportunity to show they are ready for regular rotation minutes. The 6-foot-8 Olivier-Maxence Prosper has the length, the body, and the defensive reputation (which I’m looking forward to seeing more of in real NBA games) for it, but he is still an unreliable and hesitant three-point shooter. The Mavericks' latest signing, Kessler Edwards, is not much older than Prosper; he'll turn 24 on August 9th. He has the same height but is leaner and a more willing and accomplished shooter, with similar past defensive glimpses that need to be proven on a more regular basis.

Question 5 - What happens with Jaden Hardy?

Like in his rookie season, Hardy showed glimpses of potential in his sophomore year. He's still very raw, needs the ball on a team with two dominant ball handlers, is a liability on defense, and is not very efficient at what is supposedly his best strength: scoring. Most of these deficiencies are reasonable for a 22-year-old guard trying to master one of the more difficult roles in the NBA. Hardy showed signs of progress with his playmaking and passing, and he was one of the more reliable spot-up three-point shooters on the team. But his efficiency on every other shot inside the three-point arc is well below average, and his pick-and-roll game reflects his inexperience and lack of in-game reps. Getting those needed reps will be hard to come by on a team coming off a Finals run and under pressure to fight for a spot at the top of the Western Conference. The Dinwiddie signing is an indicator that the Mavericks' front office is not (yet) ready to give Hardy a bigger role and extended minutes. If you count Thompson as one, there are six guards with whom Hardy will have to fight for minutes, making it hard for him to earn a spot in the rotation. So, it's another interesting situation to monitor going into training camp and later when the regular season starts.

The Mavericks have one of the deepest teams in recent memory, with plenty of options and styles of play. This depth means there will be a lot of interesting decisions to make about the rotation, which will be a fun part of analyzing the next season. Let's see how much more we will learn about some of my questions the next time we do the rotation check—after preseason.