Analytics Guides: Rebounding Impact of Luka Dončić and P.J. Washington Lineups
A quick example of measuring the four factors for different lineups
This article is a quick case for those looking to better understand analytics in action.
In Volume 2 of our Analytics Guides, I introduced the concept of the four factors, one of which is rebounding—specifically, opponent offensive rebound percentage as a key to defensive success.
I thought of this example after my last preseason game observation, where I highlighted the Mavericks' struggles on the defensive glass against the bigger Jazz frontline.
After the game, I tweeted about how a big part of that was playing smaller without P.J. Washington, and my friend, the brilliant Mavs radio voice Chuck Cooperstein, was quick to reply that missing Dončić was the other big missing part of Mavs rebounding equation.
This is a good case to show how the Mavericks playing big—by pairing Dončić and Washington with a big man—transformed them from a bottom-ten to a top-ten rebounding team after last season’s trade deadline.
Mavericks 2023-24 season rebounding transformation by the numbers
Let’s break down the Mavericks’ rebounding transformation using four factor numbers. For this example, I’ll be using data from Cleaning the Glass (a paid platform that filters out garbage time possessions), but you can also find four factor stats on free sites like the official NBA stats or Basketball-Reference.
Here’s a look at how NBA teams ranked by defensive rebounding (specifically, by opponent's offensive rebounding percentage) last season, before the Mavericks' trade deadline moves:
What you can see from the above snapshot of the worst defensive rebounding teams is that the average opponent offensive rebounding rate in the NBA before the trade deadline was 26.9 percent, and the Mavericks ranked 26th (fourth worst), allowing opponents to grab 28.6 percent of their missed shots.
Now, here is the same snapshot for the second part of the regular season, after February 9th. This time, we're looking at the top ten defensive rebounding teams, because that's where the Mavericks ranked following their deadline makeover. You can see that the Mavericks ranked 8th, allowing just a 25 percent opponent offensive rebound rate after the deadline.
A deeper look at lineup combinations
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the Mavericks playing bigger—with two legit big men like Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford (and playing Dwight Powell less, or even Grant Williams less as a backup five, if you remember those darker times)—would improve their rebounding.
But just playing a legit big man wasn’t enough. Let’s take a look at the Mavericks’ lineups that featured either Lively or Gafford at center and Derrick Jones Jr. or Grant Williams at power forward. A significant sample of 1,784 possessions shows that while these lineups were solid overall (+6.9 differential), they still allowed an opponent offensive rebound rate of almost 30 percent.
Now, let’s look at the same big man combo with Gafford and Lively, but this time paired with Washington, which was the most common pairing after the trade deadline last season:
You can see that these lineups allowed a significantly lower opponent offensive rebound rate—24.8 percent, to be exact.
A 6-foot-7 Dončić as the third tallest player on the floor
What about the Luka rebounding effect as Chuck pointed out? This is where things get interesting.
To my surprise, the lineups with Gafford or Lively at center, paired with Washington but with Dončić off the floor, allowed a very high 33.3 percent offensive rebounding rate. The sample size of only 307 possessions for these lineups is small, and Gafford was on the floor for 270 of those. If you’ve read my Gafford 2024-25 Player Card, you’ll remember that controlling the defensive glass is a problem for him. Based on on/off numbers, Gafford ranks as one of the worst defensive rebounding centers in the NBA.
How did the Lively or Gafford center pairing with Washington rebound when Dončić was on the floor?
Numbers show that the Mavericks were an elite defensive rebounding team in those instances. Across 1,102 possessions, they allowed only a 22.1 percent opponent offensive rebound rate.
And despite my criticism of Gafford's rebounding, the defensive numbers look strong with either Gafford or Lively when both Dončić and Washington were on the floor. Of course, there is nuance and context behind all these numbers, as is always the case with analytics. For example, Jones Jr. was often the fourth biggest player on the floor post-deadline, and he's another lengthy, athletic player.
Still, these numbers reminded me of a Twitter back-and-forth I had a while ago with former Mavericks analytics mastermind Haralabos Voulgaris. He made a point that Luka’s on/off rebounding numbers were often negative, despite his impressive individual rebounding stats. My response was that you can survive (and even have great offenses) with Luka as your second tallest player on the floor, but athletic wings and fours will punish you on the glass. However, in the past whenever Luka was the Mavericks' third biggest player, the team rebounding numbers usually looked good, which I think held true last season as well.
In the end, I hope this example helps shed more light on how looking beyond individual box-score stats and diving into team or lineup four-factor numbers can give us a clearer understanding of aspects of the game, like rebounding.
Anyone who wants to learn more or discuss further, feel free to post a question in the comments or message me. For everyone else, if you liked this breakdown and aren’t a paid subscriber yet, please consider supporting. It will enable me to keep bringing more breakdowns like these throughout the season.