How I Prep for Games: Lakers vs. Suns Preview

Part I - The process behind analyzing matchups and finding the key trends

Photo by Robert Gauthier / Getty Images

Since the big Luka Dončić trade, I’ve pivoted away from doing game-by-game previews and observations. With all the injuries, Mavericks games have felt almost irrelevant, so I’ve focused more on big-picture storylines—like their team-building strategy around Anthony Davis—and insights from key Luka and Lakers matchups.

However, once we get to the playoffs, I’ll be back to detailed game coverage. Lakers playoff games and series for sure, and if Davis returns and the Mavericks make a play-in push, I’ll cover that as well.

But today, there’s a big game coming for the Lakers. After winning eight in a row, they’ve been hit with a plethora of injuries and have now lost four straight. Tonight, they face the Phoenix Suns, a team battling the Mavericks for the final play-in spot. The game will be in European prime time, 20:30 here in Slovenia, and like most prime-time Luka games, I’ll be doing studio work for local sports TV Arena Sport with Luka’s dad and others. We’ll also have live coverage from LA with our commentary crew. A big game all around!

So, this is a good opportunity not just to preview the game, but also to break down how I prepare for matchups and explain the process behind my previews. Instead of just focusing on the Lakers and Suns, I want to give some insight into how I scout opponents, analyze trends, and put together game prep. Even if you’re a Mavs fan with no real interest in this game, there’s still something to take away—learning how to approach scouting and breaking down a matchup.

Today, in Part I, I’ll cover the basics. Then, for some of the upcoming games, I’ll dive even deeper in Part II, breaking down more details and nuances of the process.

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1 - Injuries, rotations, lineups

This is the obvious place to start, as who actually suits up for the game matters the most. The NBA’s official injury report is the first thing to check, and here’s the latest info for both teams tonight:

Lakers: Luka Dončić (probable), Jaxson Hayes (probable), Dalton Knecht (probable), Dorian Finney-Smith (probable), Gabe Vincent (Probable), LeBron James (OUT), Rui Hachimura (OUT), Maxi Kleber (OUT), Trey Jemison III (OUT)

Suns: Nick Richards (probable), Monte Morris (Questionable), Grayson Allen (OUT)

The next thing I check for both teams is how minutes have been distributed across the rotation over the last 10 games. To do that, I use a simple R script that parses game logs and visualizes the rotation in a table format.

LA Lakers rotation

Phoenix Suns rotation

Combined with the injury report, this gives us a good feel for how the rotations might take shape.

For example, the Lakers, who have been without most of their size in James, Hayes, and Hachimura, are getting Hayes and others who rested last game back. This likely means no minutes for Len and Koloko, and reduced minutes for Vanderbilt and Goodwin.

For the Suns, their starting big man, Nick Richards, should return, which likely means no minutes for rookie Oso Ighodaro. But with Grayson Allen still out, the other rookie, defensive specialist Ryan Dunn, will likely remain in the starting lineup. This has a significant impact, as he’ll most likely be tasked with defending Dončić but also stands out as the weak shooting link on an otherwise elite shooting Suns team.

Based on this information and a look at the previous games’ starting lineups, we can project the expected starting fives for tonight:

Lakers: Dončić, Vincent, Reaves, Finney-Smith, Hayes

Suns: Booker, Beal, Dunn, Durant, Richards

2 - Team characteristics: Four Factors and other rankings

The next thing I look at to get a better understanding of each team’s strengths and weaknesses are their overall offensive and defensive ratings, Four Factors (you can learn more about why they matter here), and other key rankings. I use Cleaning the Glass subscription data for this, but free data is also available on the NBA’s official website.

What can we learn from these rankings? The Lakers, at least when healthy, are a much more balanced team, ranking 12th in offense and 11th in defense.

The Suns, on the other hand, are a strong offensive team, ranking 8th in offensive rating, but they struggle significantly on the other end. Their 27th-ranked defense is among the worst in the league, with only the tanking Jazz, Wizards, and Pelicans ranking lower.

Neither team excels at crashing the offensive glass or forcing turnovers. However, both rank in the top five in free throw rate, so a key factor in this matchup will be which team defends better without fouling. This has been a major issue for the Lakers recently, trying to stop big teams like Denver and the Milwaukee without their key frontcourt players. In addition to Devin Booker (6.7 FTA per game) and Kevin Durant (5.8 FTA), the Suns' elite shooting is the biggest reason they are a high-octane offense. They rank 3rd in effective field goal percentage, making them one of the best shooting teams in the NBA. I’ll dig deeper into that in the next section.

Neither team plays at a fast pace, the Suns rank 20th and the Lakers 22nd in pace. Neither defends well in transition, but the Lakers are much better at fast breaks points. However, that advantage might not be as impactful without LeBron James catching Dončić’s touchdown passes on the break.

3 - Recent play and breaking down the key matchups