A Case for Lakers Optimism
Why I believe this team should outperform most win-total projections
August is supposed to be the time for optimism.
The rosters are (mostly) set, the new additions give us plenty of different things to study, and we can start sketching out rotations and imagining how all the pieces might fit. With no real games, disappointing defeats, ugly blowouts, or injuries to interfere with that imagination, August should be the easiest time of the year to find reasons for optimism.
For the Lakers, however, that optimism was interrupted by the shock of another franchise sale, their second ownership change in little more than a year. As I wrote in my initial reaction, caution should probably be the default stance until we see the new ownership group’s first actions and have reason to turn that caution into cautious optimism.
At the same time, the timing of the sale offered at least one source of short-term reassurance. It came after the Lakers had already completed a major summer roster reshuffle. Whatever uncertainty now hangs over the organization, the basketball team entering next season has largely been assembled.
So, after writing about the questions, uncertainty, and even alarm bells raised by the sale, I felt the need for a more optimistic take. At least I needed one.
That impulse was also reinforced by the reaction from Lakers fans after the Hoop Collective crew took the over on the Lakers’ 45.5-win projection. While some saw a hint of new-owner, ESPN/Disney bias at work, I thought their reasoning, and even some of their skepticism while taking the over, was fair. But I also believe that number is simply too low and should be much closer to the 50-win mark.
One thing worth clarifying before we begin: unlike most of my work, this is not a research or data deep dive. It’s an opinion piece, even a feelings piece, which is something I rarely write. But those feelings about the 2026–27 Lakers did not come out of nowhere. They developed while researching, crunching data, and watching games and clips for all the player profiles I have written over the past few weeks. So, consider this a take built on the impressions that accumulated during those deep dives.
One last thing before we dig in: I may return to the opposite angle, and all the reasons why things might not work out, in a future piece. I’m also planning to bring back my annual August Western Conference rankings, where I’ll place my Lakers win projection within the broader context of the conference.
Today’s highlights:
Lakers win-total projections
Luka in his prime, with a team built around him
The core is set and should provide much-needed continuity
A team with something to prove
Shooting, spacing, math, and elite offense
Youth, speed, and motor
Depth and lineup flexibility
Riding switch
1-Lakers win-total projections
Before I get into my reasons for taking the over on the Lakers’ projected win total, let’s establish where they stand to begin with. The Hoop Collective crew referred to DraftKings, which has the Lakers at 45.5 wins, behind the Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Rockets. That places them sixth in the Western Conference. BetMGM has the Lakers’ over/under one win higher at 46.5, while FanDuel and Bleacher Report have them one win lower at 44.5.
The Lakers’ roster certainly has flaws, and they do not have the same level of top-end talent as the Thunder or Spurs. They are also clearly still missing a starting-caliber forward to fill the remaining void in the starting five, which would allow some of the new additions to slide into more appropriate bench roles with fewer minutes. LeBron James, his enormous presence, and his box-score production will be difficult to replace.
Yet, despite these and other concerns, I simply do not see this as a 45-win team.
Below are my reasons for believing the Lakers are poised for another strong regular season, one that might surprise some skeptics. Failing to reach the 50-win mark for a third consecutive season would feel like a disappointment.
