With LeBron Sidelined, It’s Deandre Ayton’s Turn to Do More

Building a case for why it might actually work — with one almost unbelievable stat to back it up.

Photo by Kelsey Grant / Getty Images

Even before LeBron James’ injury that will keep him out to start the season, Deandre Ayton was the biggest swing piece for how high this Lakers team could climb. Now, with James sidelined at least until mid-November, the Lakers are about to get an early stress test of the same question I raised when they signed Ayton: Is he the short-term fix or a long-term solution? It will also test my preseason belief that Ayton belongs in the upper echelon of centers in the West.

When the news of LeBron’s injury hit, I wrote that it would likely mean more Luka-ball. More pick-and-rolls with Ayton, more touches for the enigmatic big man, and possibly, more early rhythm and confidence. That was before we had even seen Dončić and Ayton share the floor. The Slovenian superstar made his preseason debut this week, and after seeing the No. 1 and No. 3 picks of the 2018 draft connect on their first lob, it is hard to see how Lakers fans could stay indifferent.

But for me, the intrigue with Ayton started long before seeing that play in person. The Bahamian big man is such a fascinating case that I went back and watched a ton of his film, from his days in the Valley to his more recent stint in Portland. Along the way, a few numbers kept flashing back at me, along with memories of similar bigs finding new life next to Dončić.

Based on that, I tried to build a case for why a new scenery and a new floor general could unlock the best version of Deandre Ayton.

---

Today’s highlights:

1. More touches, more freedom, more involved Ayton?

2. Great hands, feet and experience… and an off-the-charts Ayton stat (🎞️VIDEO)

3. The case of Chris Paul and Devin Booker

4. The case of past Luka pick partners and the year of Christian Wood

5. The concerns that still linger: through a Steve Nash lens

---

1-More touches, more freedom, more involved Ayton?

Most of this breakdown focuses on Ayton’s offense, and more specifically on what happens when he becomes a true pick-and-roll partner for Dončić. That partnership could unlock elements of the Lakers’ offense that simply were not there last season, and in the best-case, ideal scenario, might even give Dončić the most complete pick-and-roll partner he has had in his career. And I know defense is where most remain skeptical (even though there have been some encouraging early signs in the preseason). It is also the side of the ball that will probably make or break Ayton’s long-term fit with this team. But getting Ayton off to a good start, seeing him back at the level he reached in Phoenix when he was regarded as one of the most gifted finishing bigs in the league, could have a real impact on his confidence, motivation, and willingness to do the dirty work on the other end.

“I think it’s important for him to touch the basketball because we’re gonna ask a lot of him as a screener, a rim runner, and the anchor of our defense. There has to be some level of freedom.“— JJ Redick

JJ Redick said the above quote earlier in camp, underlining exactly why Ayton’s early involvement matters. With James on the sidelines, there will be 18 field-goal attempts, 32 percent usage, and plenty of touches to redistribute. Dončić and Austin Reaves will take over most of the ball-handling load, but Ayton — a career 16.4 points-per-game scorer — looks like the next most obvious candidate to take on higher-than-expected scoring responsibilities. Especially now, with Dončić taking on a heavier load and more Luka-ball meaning more pick-and-rolls with his new big-man partner. Ayton was at his most productive, efficient, and involved as a screener when playing with pick-and-roll savant Chris Paul (more on that in my third point). Now he will team up with one of only two players — the other being Trae Young — who run that action even more frequently than CP3.

2-Great hands, feet and experience… and an off-the-charts Ayton stat (🎞️VIDEO)

I wasn’t the only nerd fascinated by Ayton’s pairing with Dončić and diving back into his old tape. Zach Lowe did the same and came to similar conclusions: Ayton is an underrated, creative screener who can become a real lob threat with the right quarterback.

A lot of that creativity came with experience, and not only from learning alongside Chris Paul. Since entering the NBA in 2018, only four players have set more total screens than Ayton, and only three high-volume screeners have done so more frequently on a per-100-possession basis. The first thing that stands out when watching Ayton roll to the basket is how smooth and nimble he looks in his movement. He is a fluid athlete who moves effortlessly for someone seven feet tall. The other thing that stood out on film, and falls into the experience category, is how well he reads the defense and subtly points or guides his ball-handler to signal when he is ready to roll to the rim and catch the lob.

It is not only in signaling for lobs where Ayton’s creativity and experience show. JJ Redick pointed out that Ayton is really good at reading what the ball-handler’s defender is doing. Watching the film again, you can see how Ayton reads the defense, flips the screen to counter, and signals to the ball-handler where and how to attack.

The other thing that stands out with Ayton is his hands and his soft touch. In my Ayton player profile, I highlighted that he is one of the most versatile and skilled big-man finishers in the game. But watching the film of him finishing in the paint, not only on lob dunks but in all kinds of creative ways around the rim, made me dig deeper into the data.

And that is where I found this crazy number. Since 2018, Ayton’s rookie year, he has been the best finisher on shots that Genius Sports tracking data classifies as a layup (defined as an interior shot that does not result from a post move) among players with more than 2,000 such attempts. Ayton has converted 72.5% of his 2,336 layup attempts — almost a full percentage point higher than Giannis Antetokounmpo, who ranks second.

3-The case of Chris Paul and Devin Booker

In the introduction, I mentioned that Ayton had his most efficient years in Phoenix during the 2020–21 and 2022–23 seasons, when he served as the third scoring option alongside two primary on-ball creators, Devin Booker and Chris Paul.

Scoring efficiency - PSA = total points per 100 shot attempts (source: Cleaning the Glass)

The 2021–22 Suns stormed the league with a 64–18 record (though they were surprisingly eliminated by Dončić’s underdog Mavericks in the second round), Ayton thrived that season as a finisher, feeding off the attention his superstar backcourt teammates constantly drew. During his career, Ayton has converted 62.7% of his 1,333 field-goal attempts on passes from either Chris Paul or Devin Booker, compared to 57.9% on 3,589 attempts from all other teammates combined. It is not hard to imagine an Ayton resurgence in a similar setup, this time as the third option playing off Dončić and Austin Reaves.

4-The case of past Luka pick partners and the year of Christian Wood

The list of big men who have looked great playing next to Dončić over his seven NBA seasons is long. From the recent athletic duo of Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, who helped propel Dallas to the Finals and became the blueprint for the kind of vertical threats that thrive alongside the Slovenian pick-and-roll maestro, to less distinguished names like Jaxson Hayes, Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, Willie Cauley-Stein, JaVale McGee, and Marquese Chriss. Check the pick-and-roll efficiency numbers for any of them, and you will find the same pattern: all land in the upper echelon, and most even reach elite territory when paired with Dončić.

You can argue that Ayton is not the prototypical lob threat that most of these bigs were (more on that in the next point), which is why I find the case of Christian Wood such an interesting comparison. Like Ayton, Wood is an enigmatic and highly talented big man, one with the athleticism to finish at the rim, but also the skill set that did not always make that his only, primary, or most preferred option. According to Genius Sports tracking data, Wood remains the most efficient screening partner Dončić has had to this day by a significant margin. The Dončić–Wood pairing also ranks as the second most efficient pick-and-roll combination in the entire NBA over the past seven years among duos with at least 500 screens set. You can argue that Ayton is not the three-point shooter or pop threat that Wood was, but he is a similarly talented, multifaceted scorer with a deadly mid-range touch that adds a new dimension as a pocket operator and short-roll free-throw line option.

Wood played the most relevant basketball of his career during his one-year stint in Dallas, even earning a few All-Star votes from fellow players and members of the media. Wood faced similar, and in some ways even greater, concerns about maturity, effort, defense, and decision-making. But by becoming a focal point of the offense and getting consistent touches, some of those concerns were mitigated. The hope is that Ayton can be a much better version of that story.

5-The concerns that still linger: through a Steve Nash lens

I mentioned Zach Lowe and his optimism about Ayton, with him offering a similar case that Dončić will make Ayton look better and that this situation could work out better than most expect. However, as elite as Ayton’s finishing numbers are, whether on lobs, layups, or overall shooting in the paint, skepticism remains about whether he can bring the motor and focus needed to be a consistent rim-running pressure big for Dončić on much higher volume.

Talking to Zach Lowe on his recent podcast, Steve Nash, one of the best playmakers with vast experience playing alongside elite rim-pressure bigs like Amar’e Stoudemire, voiced those same concerns and explained why Ayton fully buying into becoming a dynamic vertical threat is what will make the Lakers offense hum.

The good news is that watching Ayton’s film from last season in Portland, his ability to catch lobs, especially the connection he built with Deni Avdija and Scoot Henderson, stood out in both effectiveness and frequency. The data backed that up, confirming that last season marked the highest rate of Ayton finishing lobs as the screener on rolls to the rim per 100 possessions in his career.

source: Genius Sports tracking data

And even when looking at Ayton’s total lob attempts, not just those from pick-and-roll situations, his per-100-possession frequency ranks right alongside Gafford, who before Ayton’s arrival was considered one of Dončić’s ideal lob targets. So I agree with Lowe that Dončić will make this work with Ayton, finding ways to utilize him even if he does not always roll hard to the rim, as long as he keeps finishing efficiently in the paint. Ayton’s versatility, his ability to seal and punish a mismatch or hit the quick free-throw-line jumper, will be valuable against different types of defenses, such as switching, that some of Dončić’s past partners lacked the skill to exploit.

More than Nash’s hesitation, I share Lowe’s reservation about Ayton as a passer and short-roll decision-maker. The data once again shows a stark difference in Ayton’s numbers when he finishes the play himself compared to when he passes out of pick-and-roll situations.

source: Genius Sports tracking data

It will be up to Redick and Dončić to build a system with clear concepts and rules, putting Ayton in situations where his decision-making is simplified. Dončić has shown in the past that he can manipulate these actions in ways that buy his bigs the crucial extra time Lowe talked about.

However, in the playoffs and against the smartest defensive teams, decision-making gets tested at another level. Those are the situations where Ayton will face his true test, even if the regular season brings plenty of success. The Lakers and Ayton might get a first glimpse of that challenge soon, on opening night against the Warriors defense and later against Jimmy Butler, two of the most manipulative defenders in the game.