Luka Struggles and Other Observations From Recent Lakers Games Against Key Rivals

Playoff intensity, crunch-time games, rotation clues, and a spotlight on Dončić.

Photo by Michael Owens / Getty Images

With one of the tightest playoff races in recent memory, the Western Conference has shifted into playoff mode early. For almost every team not named OKC—or one of the few tanking teams—the pressure has arrived in late March and early April.

Source: ESPN

Even the Mavericks, now reinforced by the return of their big man trio, are staring down a defining stretch. Two upcoming games against the Clippers will be a good test for how ready they are for the Play-In, and a much-anticipated matchup with the Lakers will be a good time to check back in on the Mavericks here at digginbasketball.

The Lakers, meanwhile, are already deep in it. Each of their last three games—against Memphis, Houston, and Golden State—have felt like playoff games, with real stakes and postseason energy throughout. There’s no room to relax as four of their final six games are tough matchups, including two against juggernaut OKC. With so much volatility, the Lakers could finish as high as the 3-seed or drop as low as 8th if things go sideways.

Remaining Schedule Strength (Source: Tankathon)

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Today’s highlights:

1. Luka’s confidence and rhythm not there. Yet?

2. Despite that, the Lakers are still competitive

3. Winning the hustle game

4. Lack of depth and talent compared to top contenders

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1-Luka’s confidence and rhythm not there. Yet?

The most obvious thing from the Warriors loss is that Dončić still doesn’t look like the dominant player we were used to watching in a Mavericks uniform. He scored just 19 points on 6-of-19 shooting and called his performance unacceptable.

It was the 19th time in his 23 games as a Laker that Dončić has shot below 50 percent from the floor, missing more shots than he made. While his three-point shooting has always been streaky, Dončić’s work inside the arc—especially in the paint—has long been his sweet spot, the backbone of his game he could always rely on.

So far with the Lakers, Dončić is either not getting to his usual spots inside the arc (his pick-and-roll ball-handler rate has dropped significantly, reaching levels last seen during his rookie season), or not finishing at his usual rate when he does.

Luka Dončić accuracy by area (Source: Cleaning the Glass)

Too often, the results are off-balance attempts through contact, fishing for fouls—shots that reflect a lack of confidence in his current touch. What used to be his trademark And-1 finishes (currently at a career low rate with Lakers) have turned into awkward misses looking for a whistle, or trips to the free-throw line.

Luka Dončić free-throw rates (Source: Cleaning the Glass)

Is Dončić still processing the mid-season trade—something that might’ve hit him harder than it looked from the outside? Is he still searching for rhythm, his shots, and his place within the Lakers’ offense, taking turns running the show with his idol LeBron James and the red-hot Austin Reaves? Is it J.J. Redick leaning back into all-wing, small-ball lineups, with Jaxson Hayes—the only true rim-rolling, pick-and-roll threat option—averaging just 15 minutes and 2 points over the last three games? Or is it the lack of talent around Dončić during his high usage, non-LeBron, non-Reaves minutes, which are typically the time for Luka-ball?

Hard to say. It could be a mix of all of the above. It could also be that Dončić needs a longer summer reset to recover physically and mentally from what’s shaping up to be the most disappointing and defining season of his career.

But the reality is clear: despite flashes of the old Dončić, he isn’t dominating the way we’re used to—and at times, the way the Lakers need him to. Especially when opponents force their three stars into switch-heavy, isolation-heavy battles shot making and individual scoring becomes essential.

2-Despite that, the Lakers are still competitive