Mailbag Part II: How Real is Naji Marshall’s Leap?

And more thoughts on Anthony Davis and his best position on the court

Photo by Sam Hodde / Getty Images

This is the second part of my mailbag. If you missed Part I, where I answered questions about Luka Dončić’s health and long-term concerns, you can check it out here.

In this second part, I’ll answer a couple of Mavericks-related questions. But before I do that, let me just say that watching the Mavericks lately has been a tough experience. The team is undermanned, missing nearly all of its frontcourt players, and with Kyrie Irving’s ACL injury, it’s not entirely clear which direction the team wants to take to finish the season.

The Mavericks managed to snap a five-game losing streak by beating the Spurs earlier this week, despite having only eight players available. It was a game with real standings impact, whether you’re focused on the play-in race or hoping for losses to improve the Mavericks' lottery odds. With all the scrutiny the Mavericks have faced since trading Dončić, and with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II nearing their returns, they’ll soon face another difficult decision. It will be interesting to see which direction they choose to go.

Naji Marshall and his impressive stretch

Now, let’s shift to a couple of Mavericks-related questions. First up is one from one of my most loyal and engaged readers, Terry K. Cargill.

How do you assess the play of Naji Marshall during this small sample during injury. Is his potential higher than originally estimated or is this simply a result of additional minutes and shots because of the lack of available players

We’re now in the March and April stretch of the NBA calendar, where many teams are playing carefree, pressure-free, and even tanking basketball—a time when surprising games and unexpected player performances happen. These games are notoriously difficult to evaluate, or to put it another way, it’s easy to overreact to March-April basketball. Unfortunately, the current state of the Mavericks makes them the perfect example of this.

That being said, Naji Marshall has shown flashes of improved play all season. For example, in November, he had a four-game stretch where he scored 20 or more points and was a key contributor in impressive wins over Denver (which prompted me to coin the term "2-and-D wing" for him and P.J. Washington), New York, and Atlanta.

His current stretch is even more impressive. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 24.6 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists while shooting 51 percent from the field, stepping up as the Mavericks’ primary scoring and on-ball option in Irving’s absence (speaking of March basketball, ex-Maverick Quentin Grimes—like Marshall—is averaging 25 points per game over his last five games in a similar situation in Philadelphia).

Marshall’s driving game and his ability to get into the paint and finish with his trademark floater were things that intrigued me when I did a deep dive on him for his 2024-25 Player Card, and this season he took it to another level.

Among players with at least 200 non-rim shots in the paint, Marshall ranks seventh in field goal percentage at 56% this season. The only players ahead of him are Nikola Vučević, Jarrett Allen, Nikola Jokić, Ivica Zubac, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Kevin Durant—truly elite company.

Naji Marshall - shot accuracy by area (source: Cleaning the Glass)

It’s hard to say if Marshall’s elite paint finishing is sustainable or if it will regress to the mean and return to his prior levels in future seasons. Personally, his play this season feels more like confirmation that this part of his game is real—that the flashes he showed in prior seasons have successfully translated to a bigger role and more on-ball opportunities.

The real question is how his game and especially outside shooting (or lack of it) would translate to the playoffs and whether Marshall could potentially develop into a starting-caliber player on a good team. This is why it would be really interesting to see him in a competitive playoff series, something we most likely won’t get to see this season. Dante Exum and Josh Green were two players, or two lessons, that showed an exciting regular season doesn’t always translate to the postseason when teams take away your first, and sometimes second, move. And we’ve already seen some teams, recent games against the Warriors come to mind, daring Marshall to shoot open threes while sitting on his drive, and the results haven’t always been pretty. As his shooting splits show, last season’s career-best three-point shooting year unfortunately looks more like an outlier than a true breakthrough.

The other challenge for Dallas is that P.J. Washington is another wing with a similar game and an inconsistent outside shot. With the roster now featuring three other big men, Marshall’s future role becomes even trickier. Which brings me to the next question.

Anthony Davis and his best position on the floor

Here’s a question from another loyal reader, Elliot Eitzmann:

Kind of a generic question but one I think about a lot. Do you think AD is better and the four or the five? Consensus around the league is that he should play the five and I get the logic but I like him at the four. The reason being is that I’ve always felt AD’s best offense is exploiting mismatches which he sees a lot more while playing the four. I’m of course assuming that Lively and AD can play on the perimeter on defense. I think they can but there is room for argument.