How Do the Mavericks Pivot After Lively's Latest Injury Blow?

Pivotal weeks ahead to keep the season alive

Photo by Rich Storry / Getty Images

A season filled with so much hope and promise is spiraling into chaos for the Mavericks.

In the thick of the grueling game grind, with back-to-back matchups against Minnesota and OKC, another blow landed for the Mavericks as initial news revealed that Dereck Lively II sustained a small fracture in his foot and is expected to miss 2-to-3 months.

This one feels like the hardest hit of the season, perhaps an even tougher blow than the Dončić injury news after Christmas, especially considering where the team was back then and where it is now. Given the gravity of this development, I’m pivoting away from the usual Minnesota game recap and OKC preview to share my initial reflections. This is far more significant in the big picture and leaves the Mavericks standing at a crossroads.

For those missing a recap of the Timberwolves loss, here’s a quick one: The Mavericks fought hard under tough circumstances, missing seven rotation players. With so many absences, their margin for error was razor-thin—or nonexistent. Despite putting together one of their better defensive efforts this season, critical mistakes still crept in. Transition breakdowns in the second and third quarters forced Jason Kidd to burn timeouts early, leaving none for crucial late-game adjustments. The most painful moment came with 3:45 remaining, when a defensive lapse led to a Jaden McDaniels lob, sealing the Mavericks’ fate. Adding to the trouble was an ongoing turnover problem, which contributed to Minnesota’s massive 25-8 advantage in fast break points—turning what was otherwise a close, hard-fought game into a another disappointment.

How well the Mavericks navigate this razor-thin margin for error will define the next pivotal stretch. It’s a stretch that could make or break their season heading into the trade deadline and All-Star break.

The next three weeks will reveal a lot

Last night, we got the first update about Dončić’s potential comeback, with Shams Charania reporting that the goal for the Mavericks’ superstar is to return before the All-Star break. Based on that and my own intel, I think it’s unreasonable to expect Dončić to play before the deadline. This will leave Jason Kidd—and even more so Nico Harrison—juggling complex short-term and long-term decisions.

Last night’s loss was the Mavericks’ 21st of the season, dropping them deeper into play-in territory, down to the ninth spot in the crowded Western Conference race. They now have only one fewer loss than the Spurs in 12th and three more than the Lakers, who sit in fifth.

Dallas has seven games remaining before the February 6th trade deadline, including three against elite teams such as OKC, Boston, and Cleveland. The only matchup where the Mavericks, in their current state, will be clear favorites is against the tanking Washington Wizards. All five remaining games after the deadline and before the break are against competitive teams.

Source: ESPN

Irving made it clear that the veteran group, which was shouting "championship, championship" just two months ago, will not give up on the season in early February. They will do everything they can to survive until the break, recover, and then push for the best possible playoff position afterward. However, Irving acknowledged the possibility of adjusting based on circumstances. I believe the results of the upcoming games before the deadline, along with any potential moves—or lack thereof—at the deadline, will reveal a lot about the direction the remainder of this season will take.

If Harrison makes a move for a fill-in backup big man, or even pulls off a bigger trade at the deadline, it will be a clear sign that the team is still all-in on this season and confident they can pull off a similar post-All-Star run to last year, even without Lively to anchor the defense. If they stand pat, or even surprise by being opportunistic and turning into sellers at the deadline, it would signal that Lively’s return is far off and that the team views the loaded 2025 Draft—described by one of my NBA analytics friends as having a first-round pick value of 1.5 times a typical pick—as an opportunity to restock and postpone their championship push to next season.

The short-term impact and long-term concerns of Lively’s injury