Mavs Game Preview: Game 1 vs Spurs [Game of the Week]

The road to glory starts now...

Oct 24, 2024

My friends we’ve made it to the regular season! Real games start now, so it's time to level up the previews.

Before diving into this one, here’s the plan for the regular season game previews:

Structured the same way for every game, with six parts—so you can scroll and find the most relevant part if you're not in for a full deep-dive:

Game facts: Key info and other game notes.
Three key questions: The big questions heading into each matchup.
Dallas on offense | Opponent on defense: Who and how the Mavs will attack.
Dallas on defense | Opponent on offense: How opponents attack and how the Mavs scheme to defend it.
Scouting section: A short video clip breaking down the opponent’s X&Os.
Other notes: Final thoughts and closing points.

I’ll try to keep things short and direct—less words, more insights. The goal? To make sure you’re the most knowledgeable person in the room when you watch the game with friends.

Also, every week I’ll pick one game and make it the Game of the Week (this week’s opener made it an easy choice). For these, previews and post-game notes will be fully available to everyone. For other games, some of the insights will be limited to paid subscribers only, so if you can, please consider upgrading to support the work!

Mavs vs Spurs game facts

Mavs 2023-24 record vs Spurs: 4-0

DAL injuries: Dante Exum (OUT), Kessler Edwards (OUT)

SAS injuries: Devin Vassell (OUT)

SAS projected starting 5: Chris Paul (G), Julian Champagnie (F), Harrison Barnes (F), Jeremy Sochan (F), Victor Wembanyama (C)

SAS key reserves: Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins, Stephon Castle, Tre Jones

Three key questions heading into the game

How will Luka, Kyrie and Klay look in their first game together?

Will ‘conservative’ Pop be more proactive on defense against Luka this season?

Will P.J. Washington and Maxi Kleber be kryptonite for Victor Wembanyama again?

Mavs on offense | Spurs on defense

***Keep in mind, both teams’ defensive rankings come with context: the Mavs ranked as the 2nd best defense over the final 20 games last season, showing clear improvement down the stretch. For the Spurs, the numbers tell a different story when Wembanyama was on the floor (112.8 points allowed per 100 possessions) versus when he was off (121.4 points allowed per 100 possessions).

Now the question for Dallas on offense always starts with how teams defend Luka. Over the last two seasons, Coach Pop’s Spurs have run one of the most conservative, drop-heavy defenses in the NBA. They’re typically reluctant to double or trap Dončić or Irving.

The Spurs have three switchable wings in their starting five (Sochan, Barnes, Champagnie) to throw at Luka, but Chris Paul will be forced to defend one of Luka, Kyrie, or Klay. So, it’s less about where he starts and more about where he ends up, as I expect Luka and Kyrie to hunt the 39-year-old Paul in pick actions.

Another thing to watch is where the Spurs place Wembanyama. Last season, Collins defended most big men screens against Luka, but he's no longer starting. We’ll see if Pop assigns the Sochan-Barnes wing combo to Luka and Lively, allowing them to switch in pick-and-roll like Boston did in the Finals, while letting Wemby roam off P.J. Washington.

Regardless, the goal for Dallas should be to involve Wemby in actions, pulling him away from the rim and, more importantly, out of his roaming role where his length causes all kinds of havoc (and makes him the undisputed Vegas 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year favorite).

If Wemby is in drop on screens and hand-offs, I expect the Mavs to attack his tendency to protect the paint with mid-range pull-ups—Kyrie was very effective with that last season against the Spurs and Wemby. You can find clips of Kyrie scoring against Wemby in drop, from my observations on that game here. Another way to attack Wemby's drop coverage is by getting Klay involved through off-ball screen actions.

Mavs on defense | Spurs on offense

It's all about Victor. In preseason, Pop put Wemby in all kinds of actions (see video in the next section): sets to get him post-up looks, freedom to pull up from three in transition at will, running pick-and-rolls with Wemby as a screener for Paul, Wemby as a ball-handler, and even 7-foot-4 Wemby curls off screens in off-ball sets.

I expect Dallas to defend Wemby with Washington, Kleber, and Marshall—being aggressive and getting in his space. They might even use one of the three to defend Paul and the other on Wemby, so they can switch their pick-and-roll actions.

We’ll also see if the Mavs double Wemby in the post and dare someone else to beat them out of the rotations. The Spurs lack a strong secondary scorer or creator, which becomes even more of a problem with Vassell out. Even Wemby is much more efficient attacking advantages and working off secondary actions rather than serving as the primary creator at this point in his career.

Another problem I expect the Mavs to exploit is Sochan’s shooting. If the Spurs start him and play him extended minutes, I foresee Lively or Gafford daring him to shoot and roaming off him to protect the paint.

Scouting the Spurs (🎞️VIDEO)

The 2024-25 Spurs season is all about empowering Wembanyama and putting him in various positions to succeed. Gone is the Sochan-at-point-guard experiment—that’s why they brought in Chris Paul to provide structure and serve as the set-up man for Victor.

The Spurs ran all kinds of different actions in preseason to experiment with Wemby’s versatility. Here's a quick 2-minute look at some of those different setups.

Final thoughts

Last year’s season opener between these two teams was a surprise—more competitive than many anticipated. Lively had a standout rookie debut, and Luka delivered a 33-13-10 triple-double, sealing the game with a clutch step-back three over Vassell with 29 seconds left (video clip here if you really want to get hyped).

That win set the tone for a strong start to the season for Dallas. The Mavs probably wouldn’t mind seeing the same script play out tonight.