Mavs Game Preview: Game 10 @ Nuggets

A response needed, but Denver might be the unlikeliest place to find it

Photo by Ron Jenkins / Getty Images

From afar, this game looks like a schedule loss. The ailing Mavericks are up against a hot team in one of the league’s toughest road environments. Adding to that, Luka Dončić is the latest addition to an already crowded injury report, questionable due to a left groin strain.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are rolling. Denver has won four in a row and six of their last seven games after losing their first two games of the season. Maybe the Mavericks decide to punt this one—rest Dončić, give Lively, Washington and Kleber a few more days to heal, and regroup for Tuesday’s first game of the Emirates NBA Cup against Golden State, a much-anticipated return of Klay Thompson to the Bay.

Yet, with everything said after the last game, it’s hard not to expect a response from the Mavericks. A bounce-back win will be tough, especially at high altitude against a younger, faster, and more athletic version of the Nuggets. Denver is a strong offensive team, one well-equipped to exploit the Mavericks' current flaws. Dallas is also missing size and bulk inside, and Nikola Jokić presents one of the biggest size problems in the NBA. But this is the NBA, where upsets happen every night, and with Kyrie Irving and the rest of the squad, the Mavericks always have a chance to pull one off.

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Mavs (5-4) @ Nuggets (6-3) game facts

Rest: DAL on 1 day of rest; DEN on 1 day of rest

Mavs 2023-24 record vs. Nuggets: 1-2

DAL injuries: Luka Dončić (questionable), P.J. Washington (doubtful), Dereck Lively II (doubtful), Maxi Kleber (doubtful), Dante Exum (OUT),

DEN injuries: Aaron Gordon (OUT), Vlatko Čančar (OUT), DaRon Holmes II (OUT)

DEN projected starting 5: Jamal Murray (G), Christian Braun (G), Peyton Watson (F), Michael Porter Jr. (F), Nikola Jokić (C)

DEN key reserves: Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, Zeke Naji

DEN Rotation:

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Three key questions heading into the game

1. Can the Mavs keep up with the athletic, fast-paced Nuggets?

2. Is there enough bulk inside to bang and rebound with Jokić?

3. Will the Mavs rotations be crisp enough after double-teaming Jokić?

Mavs on offense | Nuggets on defense

The first big question, of course, is whether Dončić will be available. If he plays, it will significantly shape how the Nuggets approach their defensive scheme. Over the past few seasons, Coach Mike Malone has been one of the most aggressive in defending Dončić’s screens, particularly when Jokić is involved in the action. Denver often blitzes or shows two defenders on most ball screens with Jokić when defending Dončić. The Mavericks haven’t faced this strategy much yet this season, so they’ll need to be prepared to move the ball quickly and have counters ready to play out of the short roll. Even if Dončić is unavailable, I expect a similar tactic to be used against Kyrie Irving.

The Nuggets are missing two of their primary on-ball defenders they used against Dončić and Irving last season. Aaron Gordon is out with a calf strain, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has moved on to Orlando. In their place, the Nuggets have two young, athletic defenders in Christian Braun and Peyton Watson, along with an aggressive veteran the Mavericks know all too well: Russell Westbrook.

One of the keys for the Mavs tonight will be to stay poised with the ball, avoid turnovers under pressure, and use the Nuggets’ sometimes overzealous aggression against them by getting to the line, as both Watson and Westbrook are prone to frequent fouling.

Denver has three players in the starting five—Jokić, Murray, and Porter Jr.—who can be targeted on defense. When Jokić defends high on screens, it leaves a gap behind him that opponents can exploit. The Nuggets rank fourth worst in the NBA in opponent points allowed in the paint, and without Gordon, they’re even thinner inside (though Watson is on a similar athletic level and is one of the best shot-blocking forwards).

This game is one where the Mavs should look to engage Thompson more in off-ball screen actions, targeting Jokić's tendency to sag off into the paint when he’s not defending the primary pick-and-roll threats.

Mavs on defense | Nuggets on offense

Trying to slow down Denver—currently ranked 4th in offense—is where things get much more challenging for Dallas. The Mavericks will need to be ready to run, as the Nuggets play at a much faster pace with the addition of athletic players like Braun, Watson, Westbrook, and Strawther in the rotation, all while Jokić quarterbacks from the back. Denver currently ranks 7th in pace and 4th in fast break points, compared to 26th and 17th in these categories last season.

The Mavericks have been bad at defending in transition so far, allowing the 5th most fast break points. But that won’t be their biggest challenge tonight—trying to bang with Jokić in the half-court will be. The return of any of the Mavs' missing interior defenders would be a big boost, as relying on the undersized Gafford and Powell to battle Jokić on the block and on the boards is a tough proposition. But even at full strength, the Mavericks lack the interior strength to match Jokić one-on-one—few teams in the NBA do. So, I expect Dallas to rely on their usual strategy: doubling Jokić frequently.

Watson (5-of-19 from three this season) and Westbrook (10-of-31) are the primary "weak links" from which the Mavs will scheme their help defense. However, they’ll need to be cautious, as both players are excellent cutters (see Scouting Video 🎞 section) and, along with Braun, will aggressively crash the offensive glass.