Mavs Game Preview: Game 14 @ Thunder [Game of the Week]
Better be ready for Guerilla war
EDIT: Luka Dončić has been ruled OUT after this preview was submitted. However, most of the points raised in this preview remain relevant.
The Mavericks might have finally caught a lucky break by beating the depleted San Antonio Spurs last night, but hopefully, that didn’t dissuade them—instead, it should motivate them for what’s coming next tonight. Because they’re about to get hit by the Thunder.
The Thunder are missing their entire big-man rotation, including Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jaylin Williams. This leaves them with Ousmane Dieng at 6-foot-9 as their tallest player, with everyone else 6-foot-6 or shorter.
Under normal circumstances, the healthy and much bigger Mavericks should be favorites to beat the undermanned OKC. However, the Mavericks haven’t looked like the team that overcame the stingy OKC in last year’s playoffs, while the Thunder managed to defeat the similarly depleted Suns and Pelicans, even without Holmgren and the recently sidelined Alex Caruso.
This will be an unconventional game and a clash of styles: big versus small, an aggressive perimeter defense versus one built around paint-protecting bigs. The Mavericks will need to be ready for the guerrilla war that the aggressive Thunder will throw at them and punish OKC where they are weak. In the end, this game will likely be decided by who wins the possession battle: OKC by forcing turnovers, or Dallas by getting enough extra chances through dominance on the offensive glass.
The Mavericks will be tested as they face the best team in the conference—if not the league—at the moment. That’s why I selected this game as the Game of the Week. Game of the Week previews and post-game notes are fully available to everyone. For other games, certain insights will be exclusive to paid subscribers, so if you’re able, please consider upgrading to support the work!
Mavs (6-7) @ Thunder (11-2)
Rest: DAL on the second night of a back-to-back (0 days of rest) with travel; OKC on 1 day of rest
Mavs 2023-24 record vs. Thunder: 1-3 in the regular season, 4-2 in the playoffs
DAL injuries: Dante Exum (OUT), updated injury report with info on Dončić (OUT)
OKC injuries: Chet Holmgren (OUT), Isaiah Hartenstein (OUT), Jaylin Williams (OUT), Alex Caruso (OUT), Nikola Topić (OUT)
OKC projected starting 5: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (G), Isaiah Joe (G), Cason Wallace (G), Luguentz Dort (F), Jalen Williams (F)
OKC key reserves: Aaron Wiggins, Kenrich Williams, Ousmane Dieng, Ajay Mitchell
OKC Rotation:
Three key questions heading into the game
Will the Mavericks handle the pressure and take care of the ball?
How can the bigger Mavericks defend against OKC’s all-guard, spread offense?
Can the bigger Mavericks assert their dominance on the offensive glass?
Mavs on offense | Thunder on defense
This will be a huge test for a Mavericks offense that hasn’t looked right all year. OKC boasts the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin, built around an extremely aggressive approach that forces turnovers at a historic rate. Opponents turn the ball over against OKC at a 19.6 percent rate, which essentially means every fifth possession. Once the Thunder force a steal, they’re flying across the court: OKC ranks 1st in transition frequency, 2nd in points off turnovers, and 4th in fast-break points. It cannot be stressed enough that the recently reckless Mavericks offense must take care of the ball.
Without their bigs, the Thunder deploy lineups of players ranging from 6-foot-5 to 6-foot-7, allowing them to switch everything and send help or blitzes when a weaker defender is targeted in actions. I’ve watched film of how the Suns and Clippers tried to attack Isaiah Joe, and it’s demoralizing how good the Thunder are at blitzing, recovering, pre-switching, scram switching, and every other tactic that forces the offense back to where it started—an isolation against a good defender with the shot clock winding down.
This could be a problem if Luka Dončić and the Mavericks' offense continue to look as they have on most nights this season—step-slow, hesitant, and lacking full confidence in attacking even the smallest gaps. I’m sure the Thunder will force everyone not named Dončić or Irving to drive the ball—a tough proposition against such a variety of ball-hawks lurking in the gaps.
Now, the Thunder defense has one major flaw: rebounding. Even with Holmgren, they have been a poor rebounding team, and without him, they are the worst in the NBA by a significant margin. In their last three games playing small-ball, OKC has allowed opponents to rebound 37 percent of their misses. For comparison, the Thunder rank last in the NBA (30th) with a 32 percent opponent offensive rebound rate for the season, while the league average is 28 percent. The Mavericks are a poor offensive rebounding team (26th), as they don’t typically prioritize crashing the glass. However, they will need to adjust their priorities for this game. Lively, Gafford, and the rest will need to secure as many additional possessions as possible will be crucial to offset the turnovers and tough shots that OKC’s defense is likely to force. It was the recipe that helped the Mavericks eliminate OKC in the playoffs.
Mavs on defense | Thunder on offense
It doesn’t get any easier for Dallas on the other end. OKC replaced Holmgren with Joe in the starting five, resulting in much less size but significantly more shooting. How the bigger Mavericks defend what is essentially a 5-guard lineup that spreads the floor to create driving lanes is a significant question. We’ve seen Dallas struggle against teams that force them to defend in space with ample shooting and ball-handling.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—one of the NBA's most relentless drivers—and his sidekick Jalen Williams, are the team that drives the ball the most in the league. With Joe serving as the primary screen setter in Holmgren’s absence and other guards screening for SGA, they create plenty of tough matchups and exploit them in space. Both OKC as a team and SGA individually rank first in the NBA in isolations.
The Mavericks will need to assign either Marshall or Grimes as the primary defender on SGA, ideally from the start, or make early proactive substitutions to ensure that matchup. Playing Dončić, Irving, and Thompson together extensively could be problematic in this game, as the Mavericks will need to significantly improve their ability to defend drives without fouling—something they’ve struggled with so far this season.
OKC has plenty of shooting around SGA: Dort (44%), Williams (39%), Wiggins (47%), and Joe (37%) are all enjoying strong three-point shooting seasons. Cason Wallace (29%) is likely the primary candidate to receive the 'Josh Giddey' treatment from the Mavericks’ bigs, as they’ll load up in the paint to help push SGA as far away from the basket as possible. Subs Ousmane Dieng and Kenrich Williams, as well as Dort despite his strong three-point percentage, will also be tested.
Final thoughts
The Mavericks beat the Thunder in the playoffs, and we’ve seen Dončić drag a rotation featuring O-Max, Lawson, and Hardy playing significant minutes into a close game early last season. Irving orchestrated a similarly competitive game when Dončić sat out in March.
Now, even with the Mavericks heading into this game with both of their stars, Thompson, and the rest of the roster, there seem to be more doubts than at any point last season. Dončić is struggling, the team is searching for a new balance within the offense, and turnover issues are a major concern—one of the key reasons the Mavericks’ offense doesn’t inspire confidence. OKC is the last place to search for answers, but with plenty of negative surprises this season, perhaps Mavericks fans are due for a positive one tonight.