Mavs Game Preview: Game 16 @ Nuggets

Another big test for Luka-less Mavericks

Photo by Tyler Schank / Getty Images

Just as the Mavericks seemed to finally hit their stride—winning three in a row and getting healthy—another setback struck with Luka Dončić sidelined at least for a week by a right wrist sprain injury. Now, this doesn’t mean they’re without a chance in Denver. The Mavericks showed in Oklahoma City they could snatch a win from a top conference team on the road, even without number 77.

Doing that against the Denver Nuggets and the reigning three-time MVP Nikola Jokić in a tough high altitude environment won't be easy. I'm writing this preview assuming Jokić will make a return after a three-game absence because of personal reasons in this game, based on insights from my Serbian friends. If he doesn't, that changes a lot on both sides for the Mavericks.

In the last three games without Jokić, the Nuggets struggled to score but morphed into an aggressive, defensive-minded team. While in the seven games prior to Jokić's absence, with the Serbian big man playing at an incredible level, they looked like an unstoppable offensive force, averaging 124.9 points per 100 possessions (including 125.8 against Dallas in the last game of that stretch).

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Mavs (8-7) vs Nuggets (8-5)

Rest: DAL on 2 days of rest, DEN on 2 days of rest

Mavs 2024-25 record vs. DEN: 0-1

DAL injuries: Luka Dončić (OUT), Dante Exum (OUT)

DEN injuries: Nikola Jokić (questionable), Aaron Gordon (OUT), Vlatko Čančar (OUT), DaRon Holmes (OUT)

DEN projected starting 5: Jamal Murray (G), Christian Braun (G), Payton Watson (F), Michael Porter Jr. (F), Nikola Jokić (C)

DEN key reserves: Russell Westbrook, Julian Strawther, Dario Šarić, Zeke Naji

DEN Rotation:

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Three key questions heading into the game

1. Can the Mavericks do better against Jokić on their second try, with more size in the mix?

2. Can Hardy and Dinwiddie repeat their performance from OKC and provide help for Irving?

3. Will other Mavs make enough plays in 4-on-3 if Denver traps Irving?

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Mavs on offense | Nuggets on defense

The first matchup between these two teams was a high-scoring game of cat and mouse, with Dallas collapsing on Jokić and scrambling after that on defense, and the Nuggets defense doing the same, providing help every time the Mavericks went at Jokić on the other end.

The Nuggets showed two defenders on every pick-and-roll Dončić ran against Jokić, making him a distributor and forcing others to beat them. It opened up plenty of opportunities on the roll and short roll for Daniel Gafford (who was 7-of-7 in the first half), and allowed Irving to get going by picking his initial spots to attack, including some downhill attacks against a scrambling Jokić. Irving was awesome in the first game, scoring 43 points on 17-of-22 shooting, but I expect the Nuggets to give him the Dončić treatment and blitz him from the start tonight.

If that happens, Lively and Gafford will need to be focused and aggressive playing out of the short roll again, and Thompson, Washington, Marshall, and Grimes will need to contribute either by shooting or driving against close-outs. Without Dončić, one of Hardy - Dinwiddie duo will have to step up to provide additional ball-handling either as a release valve when Irving gets trapped and even more importantly when Irving gets a breather. None of the Mavericks role players could make a shot in the first matchup (Marshall, Thompson, Dinwiddie, and Hardy shot 2-of-17 from three), and that will have to change tonight.

With Lively, Washington, and Kleber who missed the first matchup in the mix, the Mavericks bigs need to be aggressive at attacking the offensive glass and running hard at every transition opportunity, providing pressure on Jokić collectively trying to wear him out.

Mavs on defense | Nuggets on offense

The undersized Mavericks couldn't do much against Jokić in the first matchup; the reigning MVP dominated with a 37-point, 18-rebound, 15-assist triple-double. Gafford and Powell were too small to provide resistance in the post, so the Mavericks doubled often, which was a tough proposition on a night when the Nuggets role players shot the ball at a very high clip (Watson was 4-of-4, Braun 1-of-2, Strawther 2-of-5 from three).