Mavs Game Preview: Game 17 @ Heat

Will the good vibes carry East?

Photo by Megan Briggs / Getty Images

The Mavericks embark on a quick two-game road trip to the East Coast, kicking off with the always-tough Miami Heat. Tonight’s game marks the first half of a back-to-back, with the team heading to Atlanta tomorrow before wrapping up their three-game stretch against Eastern Conference teams at home against the New York Knicks on Wednesday.

This will be the second game the Mavericks play without Luka Dončić, who is likely to miss the entire trip as he recovers from a right wrist sprain. However, Dallas, riding a four-game win streak—including impressive wins in Oklahoma City and Denver without Dončić—has shown they remain a highly competitive team even without their leading scorer. And competitive the Mavericks will need to be, as the Heat—benefiting from an unusual November schedule—come in with five days of rest. That extra preparation, combined with the readiness that Eric Spoelstra’s teams are known for, will make this matchup even more challenging.

Another note: we’re adding a quick Q&A about Miami with fellow Substack writer John Jablonka, who covers the Heat at Simply Ballin at the end of this preview.

---

Mavs (9-7) @ Heat (6-7)

Rest: DAL on 1 day of rest, MIA on 5 days of rest

Mavs 2023-24 record vs. MIA: 2-0

DAL injuries: Luka Dončić (OUT), Dante Exum (OUT), Daniel Gafford (questionable)

MIA injuries: Terry Rozier (probable)

MIA projected starting 5: Terry Rozier (G), Tyler Herro (G), Jimmy Butler (F), Haywood Highsmith (F), Bam Adebayo (C)

MIA key reserves: Nikola Jović, Kevin Love, Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Josh Richardson, Alec Burks

MIA Rotation:

---

Three key questions heading into the game

1. Can the Mavericks maintain their high-scoring streak against the feisty and well-rested Heat?

2. Will Dallas continue dominating the offensive glass against another relatively small team?

3. How will the Mavericks handle the zone and other tactical quirks that Eric Spoelstra is likely to throw at them?

Mavs on offense | Heat on defense

Even without Dončić, the Mavericks' offense continues to thrive, currently ranking 4th in the league. During their four-game win streak since the loss in Utah, Dallas has been scoring at an impressive rate of 126.0 points per 100 possessions.

Dallas won those four games by dominating in the paint, with nearly two-thirds of their shots coming either at the rim or in the floater/short mid-range area. Only 29% of their attempts were from beyond the arc—a significant drop from their usual rate of over 40% in previous seasons. However, this might be a game where the Mavs will need to take and make more threes. Miami’s defense prioritizes protecting the paint, often at the expense of conceding three-pointers, particularly from the corners—where they allow the fourth-most attempts in the league.

As in previous years, Miami continues to play the most zone defense in the NBA, so the Mavericks will need to be prepared. We saw Denver employ this tactic in the last game during non-Kyrie Irving minutes.

Another key factor in the Mavericks' paint dominance during the winning streak has been their success on the offensive glass. With the return of Lively, Washington, and Kleber, Jason Kidd has been utilizing bigger lineups, and the team is consistently winning the rebounding battle.

While Miami is not a bad rebounding team, they are one of the smaller squads in the NBA, making it intriguing to see if Dallas can extend their hot streak on the boards. Daniel Gafford, who has been a key part of that surge with 17 offensive rebounds over the last four games, is questionable for this matchup.

In recent years, Miami has consistently been a high-pressure defensive team, ranking in the top 10 in opponent turnover rate. Spoelstra has been one of the most aggressive coaches in the league when it comes to blitzing Irving—ranking second in frequency in previous four seasons—and without Dončić, we can expect the Heat to replicate the Nuggets' tactic, forcing others to beat them in 4-on-3 situations. It has been great watching Washington and Marshall do that by driving and attacking the paint in Denver and OKC, but the ‘other Mavericks’ will need to be extra careful against Miami's aggressive defense.

Mavs on defense | Heat on offense