Mavs Game Preview: Game 25 @ Thunder [NBA Cup Special]
A big-time NBA Emirates Cup quarterfinals showdown against a rival
Wow, this almost feels like a playoff game in December!
Two of the top teams in the West are set to face off in a high-stakes, win-or-go-home elimination game in the NBA Emirates Cup quarterfinals. With two days of rest to prepare, both squads should come out locked in and ready to deliver on a national stage.
Adding to the drama, there’s plenty of extra motivation and lingering tension from their heated playoff series last year. Love or hate the Cup, you can't ignore the fact that this game won’t feel like a regular mid-December matchup, with prize money and a trip to Vegas on the line.
This is a no-brainer for our Game of the Week, and with the extra rest days, we have a more in-depth preview. Remember, Game of the Week previews and post-game notes are fully available to everyone. For other games and coverage, certain insights will be exclusive to paid subscribers, so if you're able, please consider upgrading to support my work!
Mavs (16-8) @ Thunder (18-5) game facts
Rest: DAL on 2 days of rest; OKC on 2 days of rest
DAL vs OKC 2024-25 record: 1-0 DAL (see first matchup observations here)
DAL 2024-25 away record: 8-5
OKC 2024-25 home record: 9-2
DAL injuries: Dante Exum (OUT), Jaden Hardy (OUT), Maxi Kleber (OUT), Naji Marshall (questionable), P.J. Washington (questionable)
OKC injuries: Chet Holmgren (OUT), Jaylin Williams (OUT), Ousmane Dieng (OUT), Nikola Topić (OUT)
OKC projected starting 5: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (G), Cason Wallace (G), Luguentz Dort (F), Jalen Williams (F), Isaiah Hartenstein (C)
OKC key reserves: Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams
OKC Rotation:
Three key questions heading into the game
Will P.J. Washington be available to keep the Mavericks' size edge?
Can the Mavericks make it more difficult for SGA, especially with the starting five unit?
Can Dallas win the hustle-possession battle (rebounds vs. turnovers)?
What we saw / what's changed since last game
For Dallas, the most obvious change is that Dončić, who missed the first matchup, is not only back but in peak form, fresh off being named the NBA Western Conference Player of the Week. Meanwhile, Washington and Marshall are both questionable. If P.J. isn’t ready to go, combined with Kleber being out, it would be a significant hit to the Mavericks’ size advantage—arguably the biggest edge and a key reason why Dallas won the first game. Washington had a monster 27/17 game, scoring against smaller Thunder lineups in the post and, along with Gafford, dominating the offensive glass.
Without Washington and Kleber, and with Isaiah Hartenstein back in the lineup for the Thunder, the teams could be much more evenly matched, both relying on guard-heavy lineups built around a big man inside. Alex Caruso, another player who missed the first game, will be available this time, making the already impressive, ball-hawking OKC defense even scarier. His presence gives Mark Daigneault yet another perimeter pest to throw at Dončić and Irving.
Mavs on offense | Thunder on defense
The OKC defense, which still ranks as the best in the NBA by a significant margin, is built on two principles:
Pressure the ball with probably the best perimeter guard lineup of Dort, Caruso, and Wallace, create havoc, and generate turnovers (best in the NBA in opponent turnover rate).
Protect the paint at all costs (best in opponent paint points allowed and best in opponent rim accuracy).
Their only significant flaw is rebounding (second worst in the NBA), a weakness the Mavericks fully exploited in the first game, especially with OKC playing even smaller without a true big man in the lineup. With Hartenstein back, that task becomes a bit harder, but attacking the offensive glass should remain a priority for Lively, Gafford, and the rest. Even with the 7-footer in the lineup, OKC remains a poor defensive rebounding team, reverting to very small, guard-heavy lineups whenever Hartenstein takes a rest. One of Hartenstein’s key weaknesses is his high foul rate, so the Mavericks need to put pressure on him and try to force him off the floor.
The Thunder's lockdown paint defense comes at another cost: giving up the corner three. For the second year in a row, OKC has the highest opponent corner three frequency in the league. With Dončić back and if he’s creating problems in the pick-and-roll against Dort and others, you can expect the Thunder to shrink the floor and challenge the Mavericks' role players to beat them from the corners. This is nothing new for Dončić and the Mavs. Nearly 18% of Mavs’ shots against OKC in the playoffs came from the corner—almost double the current league average of 10%.
Washington and Jones Jr. knocking down those shots was one of the key reasons Dallas beat OKC. Tonight, the Mavericks’ role players—Washington, Marshall, Grimes, Thompson, and Dinwiddie—will need to step up and do the same. It’s not just the corner three. As you’ll see in the "How Thunder Lose" section, hitting above-the-break threes at a high clip is almost a must to overcome this juggernaut OKC defense.
If Dončić can consistently hit the step-back three and/or the mid-range shot against OKC out of the pick-and-roll, it would force the Thunder into even more aggressive help schemes, creating even more open corner threes and other opportunities.
Thunder on offense | Mavs on defense
The Mavericks scored an extremely efficient 127 points per 100 possessions in the first game but still barely escaped with a win in the end. Repeating that feat will be much tougher with Hartenstein and Caruso back in the lineup, meaning the Mavericks will need to defend far better than they did in the first matchup, where they allowed 123 points per 100 possessions.
It will have to start with providing much more resistance and disruption against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In the first matchup, it was far too easy for SGA to target his preferred defender—whether Kyrie Irving or Klay Thompson—and get to his comfort zone in the mid-range. During the first three quarters of that game, SGA scored 30 points on an incredibly efficient 12-of-15 shooting, with all of his attempts coming from below the free-throw line, as highlighted in the shot chart.
The Mavericks responded by blitzing SGA in the second half, with Washington managing to get a couple of key stops against him in the clutch. However, they’ll need a better plan from the start tonight. With Thompson back in the lineup, it will be interesting to see who gets the initial SGA assignment. Whoever it is must bring more force and resistance on the ball against SGA and avoid giving up the switch as easily in the pick-and-roll. Additionally, there was a noticeable disparity between Lively and Gafford in their effectiveness against SGA’s pick-and-roll actions. Adjusting to mirror Lively’s minutes with SGA’s even more could be another move to consider.
Another thing to look for is who the Mavericks choose for the “Josh Giddey, we’ll not defend you until you make ’em” treatment on defense to help contain SGA drives. Hartenstein isn’t a shooter but can hit the floater out of the pick-and-roll, so my guess is that Cason Wallace, who has been starting regularly since the last game, will be tested early. Wallace is shooting just 29.6% from three for the season but has improved to 41.2% (7-of-17) over four games in December.
I don’t think three-point percentage matters much anyway, as the Mavericks have shown they’re far more willing to live and die with Wallace (0-of-5 from three in the first game), Dort (4-of-9), Wiggins (2-of-7), or even Joe (2-of-6) taking threes than allowing SGA to torch them in the mid-range. They simply can’t afford to give up both again.
How Thunder lose
First, OKC doesn’t lose often. They have just five losses, only one more than the NBA-best Cleveland Cavaliers. Combine that with a league-best +12.1 point differential, a top-10 offense, and a historically great defense, and you have the makings of an elite team.
Interestingly, while their strengths (forcing turnovers) and weaknesses (poor defensive rebounding) are evident, these typically don’t decide OKC games. These traits seem to be baked into their style of play and tend to even out in the possession game. If OKC can stay small and offset lost rebounds by forcing turnovers, it plays directly to their strength: a drive-heavy, guard-oriented offense.
What has happened in all five of OKC's losses this season (as this very geeky correlation plot shows) is that opponents shot exceptionally well from three—more specifically, from above-the-break threes.
To put it simply, the chart shows that when opponents shoot 38.6% or better from above the break three, there’s a strong correlation with OKC losing. Shooting 45.5% or better from the short mid-range is another factor, though with a slightly lower correlation. Denver, San Antonio, Golden State, and even Dallas—despite dominating OKC on the glass and inside—shot 39% or better from above the break in four of the five OKC losses. The only exception was Houston, at 36.4%, and the Rockets made up for it by pounding the smaller Thunder on the glass and at the free-throw line.
Final thoughts
The previously complicated math is actually quite straightforward and points to OKC being a really good team: they force your best players into tough shots or make weaker shooters hit corner threes—and they lose when opponents make them at a high rate. Dallas has the means to punish the Thunder in other areas, like on the boards and getting to the line. However, with Hartenstein and Caruso back (and Washington potentially OUT), I don't expect the rebound disparity to be as drastic, so shot-making from Dončić and Irving will be needed.
This reminds us an awful lot of the last playoff series between these two teams, and it's just another reason why we should be so excited to see an early one-game sequel in December.