Mavs Game Preview: Game 39 vs Nuggets

First crack at stealing one from the Nuggets

Photo by Matthew Stockman / Getty Images

I’m back from a one-week vacation in Egypt and ready to dive back into regular game coverage. Along the way, I’ll also try to mix in some other analysis—I’m thinking about a pre-deadline article series—to keep things interesting.

For now, though, the Mavericks are entering an intriguing stretch, with matchups against several top NBA teams over the next couple of weeks. It begins with the second baseball series of the season—a home-and-home against the Denver Nuggets. The teams are neck and neck in the standings, but worlds apart in health and form. Dallas is without Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, trying to scrape by, while Denver is trending upward, potentially getting Aaron Gordon back and boasting the league’s second-best offense over the past month.

If the undermanned Mavericks can steal one game in this mini-series, it would be a major surprise and another great boost following their recent wins against the Lakers and the Trail Blazers. Perhaps the second game on Tuesday—played on January 14th, marking the first day of the Orthodox New Year after the celebrations—offers better odds, depending on whether Nikola Jokić is in festive, post-celebration mode (half-joking, but also not entirely).

---

Mavs (22-16) vs Nuggets (22-15) game facts

Rest: DAL on 2 days of rest; DEN on 1 day of rest

DAL vs DEN 2023-24 record: 1-1 (first matchup observations, second matchup observations)

DAL 2024-25 home record: 12-6

DEN 2024-25 away record: 10-8

DAL injuries: Luka Dončić (OUT), Kyrie Irving (OUT), Dante Exum (OUT)

DEN injuries: Aaron Gordon (questionable), Jamal Murray (questionable), Vlatko Čančar (OUT)

DEN projected starting 5: Jamal Murray (G), Russell Westbrook (G), Christian Braun (F), Michael Porter Jr. (F), Nikola Jokić (C)

DEN key reserves: Aaron Gordon (questionable), Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, DeAndre Jordan, Dario Šarić, Jalen Pickett

DEN Rotation:

Three key questions heading into the game

1. Can the Mavericks pull off another win through hustle and grit?

2. How will the Russell Westbrook roulette (and its tactical match) play out?

3. Can the Mavericks' offense stay hot and get close to scoring 120?

What we saw / what's changed since last game

Dallas has faced Denver twice this season, splitting the two games. The second matchup was one of the Mavericks' best wins of the year, highlighting a fun stretch where the Dončić-less team went on a winning streak led by Irving, Naji Marshall, and P.J. Washington, playing an uptempo and unpredictable style of basketball.

Since then, things have taken a turn for the worse for Dallas, while Denver has been steadily on the rise. The Nuggets have emerged as the NBA's second-best offense since their last meeting with Dallas, trailing only the Cavaliers while scoring at an impressive rate of 121.0 points per 100 possessions.

The Nuggets' offense has been even better over the last nine games since Russell Westbrook was promoted to the starting lineup. During this stretch, Westbrook is averaging 15.4 points, 8.2 assists, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. The Westbrook-Jokić pairing is exceeding most expectations (myself included, as I was among the many skeptics). Jokić has supercharged Westbrook's transition and cutting game, while Russ has emerged as one of the best post-entry passers the Serbian big man has ever played with. We’ll see who starts tonight with Gordon’s potential return and Murray (both are questionable), but regardless, avoiding turnovers and keeping the Nuggets' transition game in check will be key.

Mavs on offense | Nuggets on defense

First, I’m including the full-season Four Factors rankings here for consistency, but it’s clear the Mavericks are not the elite 6th-best offense the numbers suggest. Since Dončić’s injury on Christmas, they’ve struggled to score, hovering closer to the 20th rank.

In the prior two matchups, the Mavericks scored at a high rate—123 and 120 points—and they’ll likely need another high-scoring performance to have a chance against the high-octane Nuggets offense in one of these two games. Naji Marshall (26 points) and P.J. Washington were excellent in the Mavericks' win, attacking the paint, exploiting the Nuggets’ lack of size beyond Jokić, and targeting Jamal Murray on switches. They’ll need to be aggressive again, especially if Gordon is still not ready to go.

Without Dončić and Irving, the Mavericks can’t match the efficiency of a Jokić-led offense, so they’ll need to double down on the winning blueprint that brought them their last two victories: dominate the hustle game and secure more possessions than the Nuggets.

Winning the rebounding battle against Jokić is always a challenge, and it will be even tougher if Gordon returns. However, the Mavericks have shown significant improvement on the glass over the last two games and managed to dominate the offensive boards in their most recent matchup against the Nuggets.