Mavs Game Preview: Game 4 @ Timberwolves [Game of the Week]

The grind continues...

Oct 29, 2024

The season quickly turned into a very busy stretch—this will be the Mavericks’ fourth game in six days, with their fifth coming up in eight days against the Rockets on Thursday. After that, they’ll finally get a couple of days to rest.

Despite the Mavericks being at a significant rest disadvantage, coming off a back-to-back with travel (if you missed last night’s observations from the win over the Jazz, you can find them here), while the Wolves had two days to rest and prepare at home, I’ve selected this game as the Game of the Week for Week 2.

It feels like a natural choice, as it’s the first time the two teams face off since the Western Conference Finals. If you’re new here, Game of the Week previews and post-game notes are fully available for everyone. For other games, some insights will be exclusive to paid subscribers, so if you’re able, please consider upgrading to support the work!

Mavs (2-1) @ Timberwolves (2-1) game facts

Rest: MIN on 2 days of rest; DAL on 0 days of rest—second night of a back-to-back with travel

Mavs 2023-24 record vs. Timberwolves: 1-3 in the regular season, 4-1 in the playoffs

DAL injuries: Dante Exum (OUT), Maxi Kleber (OUT)

MIN injuries: No injuries reported on the latest injury report

MIN projected starting 5: Mike Conley (G), Anthony Edwards (G), Jaden McDaniels (F), Julius Randle (F), Rudy Gobert (C)

MIN key reserves: Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Joe Ingles

MIN Rotation:

Three key questions heading into the game

Can the Mavericks find enough energy on such a short turnaround?
Will Julius Randle continue to torch the Mavericks?
Is Dereck Lively II ready for a Rudy Gobert grudge game?

Mavs on offense | Wolves on defense

**** I decided to use the current 2024-25 season stats for this outlook after both teams have played three games. These stats show some team tendencies and characteristics but are still very skewed due to the small sample size. They’ll be much more descriptive once we reach the 10- or even 20-game mark.

The Wolves aren’t at the last year’s “best defense in the NBA” level yet, but one thing is there already: they’ll force their opponents into plenty of very difficult shots and allow very few threes. Currently, the Wolves force most mid-range shots in the NBA (they were 2nd last season) and are 2nd in opponent short mid-range frequency (3rd last season).

Dončić and Irving will need to hit tough mid-range shots—e.g. Luka with Jaden McDaniels on his hip and Kyrie taking pull-ups against Gobert in drop coverage. They’re capable, as they showed in the Western Conference Finals, but they’ll need to play much closer to that level than what we’ve seen in the first three games (Dončić is shooting 30 percent on mid-range shots, and Irving is at 39 percent).

We’ll see how motivated Anthony Edwards will be to defend Kyrie Irving again, especially after things didn’t go well for him in the playoffs. Apart from Karl-Anthony Towns, Mike Conley was the player the Mavericks hunted most in the playoffs. However, Chris Finch has kept minutes relatively low for his 37-year-old point guard in the first three games, meaning fewer holes to attack and more ball pressure from McDaniels, DiVincenzo, and Alexander-Walker.

Mavs on defense | Wolves on offense

The first three games have established a clear pecking order on offense for the Wolves: it’s Edwards (30 percent usage, 23 FGA per game), followed by Randle (25 percent usage, 14 FGA), and then everyone else in terms of usage and shot attempts.

Based on what we saw in the Suns game, where Thompson was the main defender on Booker, I assume he’ll be the primary matchup for Edwards—which isn’t ideal (assuming the Mavericks don’t rest anyone and re-shuffle the starting five). Washington is the most logical matchup for Randle, but the burly 6-foot-9 forward takes extra pleasure in finding mismatches and torching them on the block—especially against his hometown Mavericks (see the next Scouting section for more detail).

One noticeable change in the Wolves’ offense this season is their three-point volume. Last season, they ranked 20th in three-point frequency, with 35 percent of their shots coming from beyond the arc. After three games this season, they’re currently 3rd, with 47 percent of their shots from downtown. Edwards has hoisted 40 three-pointers in the first three games (13 per game), with DiVincenzo second at 8 attempts per game. I expect the Mavericks to shrink the floor and protect the paint against both Edwards and Randle, so how well the Wolves’ more unpredictable shooters (McDaniels, Alexander-Walker, and others) capitalize on open shots—and how many pull-up threes Ant makes—could decide the game.

Scouting the Wolves

No time to make a scouting video on such a short turnaround, but I’ll share some Randle stats instead. Since 2020, the Dallas native has played six games against the Mavericks, averaging 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists.

Randle is off to a great start in a Wolves uniform, averaging 24 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and shooting 54 percent from three over his first three games. He’s also averaging nearly 6 free-throw attempts per game, so defending him without fouling will be crucial for Washington, Marshall (the primary defenders), and anyone else who gets switched onto Randle. As you can see from the Mavs on Defense stats section, Dallas is currently ranked 26th in opponent free-throw rate, so excessive fouling has been an issue.

Edwards (32 isolations) and Randle (29 isolations) are each averaging around 10 isolation plays per game, but we’ve seen the Mavericks successfully crowd Edwards, forcing him to playmake or settle for a long-range jumper.

Final thoughts

Dončić and the Mavericks’ offense haven’t been firing on all cylinders yet, so expecting that to change against a well-rested, elite defensive team might be a tall order this early in the season. But we’ve seen this team defy the odds against these same Wolves just a couple of months ago…and with Dončić, Irving, Thompson, and the rest, nothing is impossible.