Mavs Game Preview: Game 7 vs Pacers [Game of the Week]
Facing last season's demons
The Mavericks play their second game on a back-to-back, this time facing another Eastern Conference team in the Indiana Pacers. They’ll go up against their old friend and foe, Rick Carlisle, and his team that beat them convincingly twice last season. The Pacers played a fast-paced, 5-OUT system with a good-shooting, rim-protecting big that the Mavericks couldn’t solve—both in the regular season and later against Boston in the Finals.
While Dallas may be at a rest disadvantage, the Pacers are dealing with their own challenges. Hampered by multiple injuries and off to a slow 2-4 start, they’re coming into tonight’s game in less-than-ideal form. Yet they’ve proven their unpredictability—this Pacers team handed the juggernaut Celtics their only loss so far and can never be underestimated.
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Mavs (4-2) vs Pacers (2-4) game facts
Rest: DAL on 0 days of rest (second night of a back-to-back with no travel); IND on 2 days of rest
Mavs 2023-24 record vs. Pacers: 0-2
DAL injuries: Dante Exum (OUT), Maxi Kleber (OUT)
IND injuries: Aaron Nesmith (OUT), Isaiah Jackson (OUT), James Wiseman (OUT), Andrew Nembhard (questionable)
IND projected starting 5: Tyrese Haliburton (G), Ben Sheppard (G), Bennedict Mathurin (F), Pascal Siakam (F), Myles Turner (C)
IND key reserves: T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin, Jarace Walker
IND Rotation:
Three key questions heading into the game
Can Dallas slow down the Pacers' run-and-gun offense that torched them for 137 and 133 points in the previous two matchups?
How will the Mavs' big men fare against Myles Turner, who averaged 27 points per game in two games against Dallas last season?
Was last night’s dominant Dončić game the first of many to come?
Mavs on offense | Pacers on defense
The Pacers are not a great defensive team to begin with and will be missing their best wing defender against Dončić, Aaron Nesmith, as well as potentially their best option on Kyrie Irving, Andrew Nembhard, who is questionable and dealing with knee tendinitis. Bennedict Mathurin and Ben Sheppard could get those assignments tonight.
Indiana also has no backup center option after Isaiah Jackson sustained a torn right Achilles tendon—a big hit for a team that was already the worst defensive rebounding team. While Dallas isn’t a big “crash the offensive glass” team, they should explore taking advantage of this weakness.
Last season, Indiana was among the more conservative teams in pick-and-roll defense against Dončić and Irving, playing the 3rd most drop coverage against them among all NBA teams.
Myles Turner was the primary target for the Mavericks, and the Pacers have their rim-protecting big man in drop coverage most of the time. It’s a tactic we’ve seen teams employ much more this season against Dallas, with bigs mostly staying home on the lob but leaving the layup or mid-range floater open for Dončić and Irving. It’s something Jason Kidd highlighted after the win against Orlando—a strategy the Mavericks are adjusting to and one that will change quickly once Dončić starts making those shots at his usual rate, as he did against the Magic.
Last season, the Pacers allowed the most shots at the rim (though they defended them fairly well with Turner contesting) and are generally not a strong paint-protecting defense. So, Dončić and Irving being aggressive in getting to the rim and patient in finishing once they’re there will be important in this game.
Mavs on defense | Pacers on offense
This part is much more interesting and unpredictable. The Mavericks couldn’t find a way to keep up with the speed of the Pacers' offense last season. And it wasn’t just about transition; it was the speed of their pick-and-roll actions and their execution in finding open shooters against the Mavericks' scrambling defense.
We’ll see who gets the challenge of defending the head of the snake in Tyrese Haliburton (I’d guess Klay Thompson gets the first look again, with adjustments following the first substitutions). It’s a difficult job, even though the Pacers’ All-Star guard has struggled at the beginning of the season (more on that in the next Scouting section). Texas native Myles Turner was an even bigger problem for Dallas last year, scoring 33 and 20 points in their two matchups. He punished the Mavs' bigs for sagging off in the paint by stretching the floor behind the three-point line. The Mavericks had no solution for his two-man game with Haliburton: Indiana scored 1.317 points per possession when these two ran pick-and-roll—a level of efficiency typically seen only in transition. Turner scored by rolling to the rim, making free-throw line jumpers on the short roll, or hitting threes from beyond the arc. When the Mavs’ defense collapsed around him, the Pacers capitalized by hitting threes at a high rate. Josh Green was the primary defender on Haliburton in most of those actions, but he struggled to apply enough pressure to make things uncomfortable. We’ll see how the Mavs approach this tonight, but I’d like to see more pressure against Haliburton, with Thompson, Marshall, Grimes, and even Washington taking turns. With Turner at center Pacers have enough shooting to punish Mavs’ tactic of packing the paint, and if they make their outside shots, Mavs’ perimeter defense will have to defend the drive with less help than usual.
Pascal Siakam (19.8 points per game) and Mathurin (16.3) are actually the Pacers' top two scorers so far this season (both are shooting above 40 percent from three). T.J. McConnell is always a pest off the bench, so the Mavs shouldn’t focus only on stopping the Haliburton-Turner pick-and-roll.
Scouting the Pacers
Haliburton is off to a slow start, with averages of 4.0 points, 7.3 assists, and shooting just 24 percent from three and 34 percent overall from the floor—well below his marks from last season.
I reached out to the brilliant Pacers analyst Caitlin Cooper to provide more context to those numbers, and here’s how she explained Haliburton's challenges:
"It’s… a lot. Teams are using more aggressive tactics against him, which has leveraged him into operating a bit more like Steph, where he has to start more possessions away from the ball. Some of that also connects back to when they traded Buddy (Hield) and how that changed his role as well. He doesn’t often drive switches. They don’t have anyone who can create that same degree of hesitation for him anymore, with the big becoming the on-ball defender. By my eye, he’s rushing shots to compensate (the average speed of his release is nearly a second faster), and he still looks stiff and like he isn’t moving right."
Final thoughts
Another fun matchup awaits—another opponent hit by injuries, and another opportunity for the Mavericks to prove their high ambitions. Despite being on a back-to-back, winning against teams not projected to be better than them is key for a contending team—something the Mavericks make no effort to hide they aim to be.