Mavs Game Preview: Game 8 vs Bulls

Injuries piling up, but can’t give in

Photo by Michael Reaves / Getty Images

The Mavericks’ 5-game home stand hasn’t started as planned, with Dallas dropping two of their first three games. That’s why it’s crucial for the Mavs to close strong by winning these next two games.

Although tonight’s matchup against Chicago might look like an easier task compared to the Suns on Friday, Dallas can’t afford to take the Bulls lightly.

After replacing DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso with Josh Giddey in the summer, the Bulls are playing a different style of basketball—one that bears some similarities to that of the Pacers (more on that in the "Mavs on defense | Bulls on offense" section). And as we just saw, the Mavericks got outmatched in a run-and-gun type of game, which should be a warning sign.

Injuries are mounting for Dallas, but these are the games where the depth we praised all summer needs to show up.

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Mavs (4-3) vs Bulls (3-4) game facts

Rest: DAL on 1 day of rest; CHI on 1 day of rest

Mavs 2023-24 record vs. Bulls: 2-0

DAL injuries: P.J. Washington (OUT), Dereck Lively II (questionable), Dante Exum (OUT), Maxi Kleber (OUT)

CHI injuries: Lonzo Ball (OUT), Zach LaVine (questionable)

CHI projected starting 5: Zach LaVine(G), Coby White (G), Josh Giddey (F), Patrick Williams (F), Nikola Vučević (C)

CHI key reserves: Ayo Dosunmu (will start if LaVine is OUT), Julian Phillips, Jalen Smith, Dalen Terry, Talen Horton-Tucker

CHI Rotation:

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Three key questions heading into the game

1. Will the Mavericks finally show up from the start?

2. How will the defense hold up, potentially missing four of its top defenders?

3. Will we see a Daniel Gafford redemption game against his former team?

Mavs on offense | Bulls on defense

Despite the Four Factors showing the Bulls’ defense (ranked 15th) performing better than their offense (23rd), I’m much less concerned about the Mavericks on offense than I am about their ability to defend against Chicago. The Bulls’ defense may be ranked 15th, but it seems worse than that ranking suggests. They allowed 135 points in their last game against the lowly Jazz, and gave up 123, 122, and 123 points in previous matchups against the Grizzlies, Bucks, and Pelicans.

The Four Factors reveal a Bulls defense that leans more conservative than aggressive—they don’t force turnovers (2nd worst in the league), but they also don’t foul (3rd best) and are the best defensive rebounding team. Essentially, they excel in areas the Mavericks aren’t looking to exploit anyway, like getting to the line or crashing the glass.

What Dallas needs to exploit is the Bulls' size—or rather, their lack of it—and their interior defense. With 6-foot-10 center Vučević and 6-foot-7 power forward Patrick Williams (who mostly defends on the perimeter), the Bulls have been one of the smallest teams over the past few years. Playing small without a real rim protector shows in their paint protection numbers: Chicago currently allows the most points in the paint in the NBA and is 2nd-worst in opponent FG% at the rim.

The Mavericks need to attack the paint rather than settle for long mid-range pull-ups or step-back threes. Bulls coach Billy Donovan has been one of the most proactive in defending Dončić over the past few years; they blitzed and showed two defenders (especially when Vučević was the screen defender) from the start in both of last season's matchups. If they employ a similar strategy, particularly with their biggest defenders, Williams and Vučević, the Mavericks will need to move the ball and find a path into the paint against the smaller scrambling defenders.

Another weakness to exploit is the Bulls' poor transition defense—Chicago currently allows the 3rd most opponent fast break points. We’ve seen the Mavericks excel in this area against undisciplined defenses like those of the Jazz and Timberwolves.

Mavs on defense | Bulls on offense

Here’s where the Mavericks need to be careful, as these aren’t the same Bulls we saw in the past with DeMar DeRozan as the primary option. Replacing DeRozan, who thrives in a methodical half-court offense, with Giddey—who excels at pushing the pace and moving the ball—has transformed the Bulls from one of the slowest teams last year to the team currently ranked number one in pace.