Mavs Game Preview: Game 9 vs Suns

Second clash with the Suns, another measuring stick game against the West top rivals

Photo by Christian Petersen / Getty Images

The Mavericks are heading into the final game of a five-game homestand that hasn’t quite gone to plan, sitting at 2-2 and dealing with a wave of injuries. Dallas will try to close this stretch on a high note, but the challenge is steep as they face one of the league’s hottest teams, the 7-1 Phoenix Suns.

This will be the second matchup between the two, with Dallas having fallen short in their season’s second game in Phoenix (this is where it comes in handy to have all observations archived, so you can revisit the key game notes here). For the Mavericks, it’s another measuring stick game against a top rival in the West—a tough test, especially with two starters out.

Another note: A lot of thought and effort goes into these previews, so any feedback—whether in the comments or via direct message—is greatly appreciated to make them even better.

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Mavs (5-3) vs Suns (7-1) game facts

Rest: DAL on 1 day of rest; PHO on 1 day of rest

Mavs 2024-25 record vs. Suns: 0-1

DAL injuries: P.J. Washington (OUT), Dereck Lively II (OUT), Dante Exum (OUT), Maxi Kleber (doubtful)

PHO injuries: Ryan Dunn (doubtful)

PHO projected starting 5: Tyus Jones (G), Devin Booker (G), Bradley Beal (F), Kevin Durant (F), Jusuf Nurkić (C)

PHO key reserves: Royce O’Neale, Mason Plumlee, Grayson Allen, Ryan Dunn

PHO Rotation:

Three key questions heading into the game

1. Can Luka and Kyrie force the Suns—and Nurkić—out of their comfort zone with a dominant scoring performance?

2. How can Jason Kidd find the right balance between offense and defense with a limited rotation?

3. Can the Mavs defend both Durant and Booker without excessive fouling this time?

Mavs on offense | Suns on defense

Kidd emphasized the importance of finding the right flow and rhythm after the last game, but this might be one where a dominant performance from Dončić or Irving is needed.

Eight games in, Mike Budenholzer’s defensive strategy is evident: they protect the rim with Nurkić in drop coverage and force teams into mid-range pull-ups. The Suns rank 30th in opponent mid-range frequency—in other words, currenlty they’re the best in the NBA at forcing mid-range shots. The Mavericks shouldn’t be surprised, as they saw this strategy in their first matchup in Phoenix, where a season-high 39 percent of all their shots came from mid-range.

With Nurkić in drop coverage, both Dončić and Irving found plenty of open looks inside the arc, and they’ll need to convert those at a higher rate tonight. Irving, who thrives on mid-range shots, hit only 4 of his 13 attempts from outside the restricted area in that game. He needs to be more aggressive in getting to closer range if he’s matched up against Tyus Jones again.

Even Dončić, who scored 40 in last game, left some meat on the bone. On most of his drives, Nurkić was deliberately sticking to the roll-lob threat, giving Dončić room to be even more aggressive in seeking his shot and finishing closer to the rim. The Mavericks might need one of Dončić’s signature “if you defend me like this, I’ll score 50” games—something we’ve seen plenty of in previous seasons.

Bradley Beal missed the first matchup, so rookie Ryan Dunn stepped in and took the initial Dončić assignment, alternating with Royce O'Neale. The rookie fouled often (Dončić had 12 free-throw attempts), but he is still way more of a disruptive defensive presence than Beal. It’ll be interesting to see how the Suns manage defensive assignments, especially against Dončić with tonight's starting lineup.

The biggest challenge for Dallas in this game might be finding the right balance between offense (shooting) and defense. In the first matchup, Kevin Durant played a "free safety" role, roaming off P.J. Washington (more on that in the video breakdown in the Scouting the Suns section). Naji Marshall will replace Washington, who went 2-for-10 from the floor in Phoenix, tonight, and I expect he’ll get the same “we’ll defend you when you prove you can make a couple of shots” treatment. Marshall punishing that strategy—either by making shots or driving and creating against a scrambling defense—will be key in this game, as other alternatives, like Spencer Dinwiddie and Jaden Hardy, would make things much harder on the defensive end.

Mavs on defense | Suns on offense

Speaking of the offense vs. defense challenge, the Mavericks will face that head-on with their starting lineup as they try to defend Durant, Booker, and now Beal as well.

Thompson was matched up against Booker for most of the last game, and while he competed well and the Suns' All-Star guard had an off shooting night, Thompson, like the rest of his teammates, couldn’t keep up without fouling. Booker had 12 free throws, Durant 9, and Nurkić 8, leading to a 37-18 disparity at the line. Combined with Nurkić bullying the Mavs' bigs on the block and on the boards, this was ultimately the Mavs' downfall.

Things will get even more difficult this time around, with Beal and Grayson Allen—two strong shooters—now in the mix. The Suns are one of the best shooting teams in the league, and under Budenholzer, they’ve extended their shooting range well beyond the three-point line (Phoenix ranks 5th in three-point frequency and 7th in accuracy), making over-helping on Durant and Booker a risky move—even if the Mavericks had their best defenders, like Lively and Washington, available. The Suns are also strong in transition (6th best in fast break points), and the Mavericks haven’t defended well on the break this season (5th worst in fast break points allowed).