Play-In Game Preview: Mavs vs Kings

How badly do Kidd, AD, and the rest want to keep this season alive?

Photo by Tim Heitman / Getty Images

The NBA regular season wrapped up Sunday with one of the wildest Western Conference playoff races in recent memory: five teams hit the 50-win mark, and three more finished with at least 48. Now the real fun begins.

The first round is set to bring top-tier matchups across the board, and if you’re here for Luka Dončić’s first postseason run with the Lakers, stay tuned — I’ve got Lakers–Wolves preview content coming later this week.

But before we get there, we’ve got the Play-In. The final two playoff spots are up for grabs, with the Mavericks trying to fight their way in from the outside track — the 10th seed. To do that, they’ll first need to get past the Kings, another team that traded their best player at the deadline. Sacramento made their midseason shake-up by sending De’Aaron Fox to the Spurs in a three-team deal that brought Zach LaVine to Sacramento.

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Mavs (10th) @ Kings (9th) game facts

DAL 2024-25 record: 39-43 overall, 17-25 away

SAC 2024-25 home record: 40-42, 20-21 home

DAL vs SAC 2024-25 record: 0-3

DAL injuries: Brandon Williams (questionable ?), Kyrie Irving (OUT), Olivier-Maxence Prosper (OUT)

SAC injuries: Malik Monk (OUT), Jake LaRavia (OUT / questionable ?)

DAL projected starting 5: Naji Marshall (G), Klay Thompson (G), P.J. Washington (F), Anthony Davis (F), Dereck Livelly II (C)

SAC projected starting 5: Zach LaVine (G), Keon Ellis (G), DeMar DeRozan (F), Keegan Murray (F), Domantas Sabonis (C)

SAC rotation:

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Three key questions heading into the game

1. How motivated are the Mavericks to grab the 8th seed and a first-round matchup with OKC?

2. Can the Mavs turn this into a defensive, low-scoring battle?

3. Is this Anthony Davis’s moment to shine?

Another clash of styles, but same challenges

The Mavericks’ midseason transformation into a bigger, more physical team means they keep running into opponents that are just built differently. After their high-profile clash with the Lakers, I wrote about the contrasting styles—Dallas leaning on size and paint pressure, L.A. on wings and playmaking. This one, though a bit less drastic, feels similar.

It’s the huge, two-big Mavericks lineups against a smaller Kings frontcourt, with 6'10" Domantas Sabonis at center and 6'8" Keegan Murray at power forward (Sacramento does have Jonas Valančiūnas on the bench if they decide to match size, but that hasn’t been their usual approach). Kings wing ball-handling and shot creation, with LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, against Anthony Davis operating as the high-post hub for the Mavericks.

However, despite different roster makeups and styles, both teams face the same challenge: a lack of true point guard play, passing, and playmaking. Jason Kidd tried to zag away from the Spencer Dinwiddie experiment by starting Naji Marshall and leaning even more on Davis as the playmaking hub at the elbow. And without Malik Monk, Doug Christie will have to lean even more on Sabonis to create opportunities for others, primarily as a dribble hand-off hub for LaVine, DeRozan, and the rest of the Kings' offense.

Despite two different processes, both teams often end up with the same results: a heavy dose of long mid-range shots. My concerns with AD playing power forward have been well documented. Since his return on March 24, the Mavericks' offense has transformed into a mid-range-heavy, low three-point volume team. The Kings went through a similar transformation earlier in the season, as the DeRozan acquisition reshaped them into a team that finished the regular season first in the NBA in both overall mid-range and long mid-range frequency.