Seven Games In: What We’ve Learned About Luka and the Lakers

How do the Lakers keep winning despite Luka Dončić still trying to find his rhythm?

Photo by Harry How / Getty Images

The Los Angeles Lakers are the hottest team in the NBA. Last night's win over their city rivals, the LA Clippers, was their 15th win in their last 18 games since January 20th, and their 15-3 record is the best in the league during this stretch.

It’s an impressive run, made even more remarkable by the fact that Luka Dončić is still finding his rhythm in his new surroundings after the stunning trade that caught him and the entire NBA off guard. Working his way back after the longest injury break of his career, adjusting to a new team, system, and playing alongside a superstar of LeBron James's caliber isn’t easy, but the Lakers keep stacking wins.

So, how have J.J. Redick and his team managed to keep rolling while Luka works through the transition?

A quick programming note for Mavs fans: I plan to do a similar check on Dallas sometime next week as they navigate a tough stretch of games against the Kings and two matchups against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. We’re also approaching the key March 6th milestone, when we hopefully get some positive updates on Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II.

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Today’s highlights:

1. Luka is still far from his old rhythm, but the flashes are there

2. A 20-game stretch of dominant defense (🎞️VIDEO) 📊

3. LeBron and Luka partnership, and James playing like an MVP candidate at 40 years old

4. The three-point volume increase 📊

5. Hachimura and Reaves injuries and a look at the playoff race 📊

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1-Luka is still far from his old rhythm, but the flashes are there

If I told you that Dončić would average a pedestrian (by his standards) 21.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists while shooting just 37 percent from the floor, it would be hard to believe the Lakers would still go 5-2 in his first seven games.

The stats are slightly skewed since Dončić was on a minutes restriction in his first two games, and flashes of his dominant play are becoming more and more frequent. A dominant 32-point, 10-rebound, 7-assist, 4-steal performance in a statement win against Denver. A first-half passing clinic followed by a 19-point, 15-rebound, 12-assist, 3-steal, 2-block triple-double against a blitzing Mavericks defense that wanted anyone but Luka to beat them. An 8-point fourth quarter and a one-legged, falling-out-of-bounds clutch fadeaway three against the Timberwolves. A dominant 20-point second half against the Clippers.

However, there are still plenty of long, low-efficiency stretches where Dončić can’t buy a jump shot to save his life and looks far too hesitant on his finishes around the rim and in the paint. The three-point shot has been problematic and will hopefully improve with more games and once Dončić gets his legs under him. The positive sign is that, as he often did in the past when his outside shot wasn’t falling, Dončić has been more aggressive driving and getting to the line—he's averaging nearly 26 points and 10 free-throw attempts per game over his last four games.

There are two key reasons the Lakers have been able to survive Dončić’s low-efficiency scoring and, consequently, their inefficient offense.

2-A 20-game stretch of dominant defense (🎞️VIDEO)

The first and main reason for the Lakers' success is their defense, which has ranked as the best in the NBA over the last 20 games. The interesting part is that the Lakers have sustained this level of defense despite two major shakeups—first, losing their defensive anchor Anthony Davis to injury, and second, replacing him while integrating Dončić, whose defense has often been questioned, into the lineup.

Without Davis, the Lakers shifted their defense from relying on one of the league’s best rim protectors to a wing-heavy, switch-everything unit. With the return of Jarred Vanderbilt and the additions of Dončić and Dorian Finney-Smith, the Lakers have transformed into an 'all-wing' unit, featuring a lineup of 6'7" to 6'9" players—James, Dončić, Rui Hachimura, Finney-Smith, Vanderbilt, and Dalton Knecht at 6'6". If you check the chart in my tweet, you’ll see a significant decline in small guard minutes since Luka has taken over the primary point guard role. Dončić’s addition means that the majority of remaining guard minutes are now filled by the 6'5" Austin Reaves. The Lakers lack size at center but have a height and size advantage at nearly every other position in most matchups.

The other key part of J.J. Redick's defensive game plan is an aggressive 'shrink the floor' tactic to provide help against the opponent’s top scorers after the initial switch. By switching, the Lakers avoid getting caught in constant rotations and then use their length to show bodies, collapse on drives and contest shots.

Like everyone else, Dončić has fully bought into Redick's scheme, with everyone flying around, rotating, and providing help—even if/when the first defender gets beaten off the dribble. It’s a scheme that best fits Dončić’s size, his ability to switch onto bigger players, and his awareness to generate steals by jumping into passing lanes (Dončić is averaging 2.5 steals in last four games).

The downside of the scheme is that it allows a high volume of three-point attempts—the Lakers have given up the fourth-highest opponent three-point frequency since January 17th. So far, they’ve benefited from ‘shooting luck’, with opponents shooting just 33 percent from deep during this stretch. As you can see on the chart below (green bubbles), most opponents have shot well below their expected three-point shot quality during this recent run. This is something that will eventually regress to the mean.

However, I believe their strong paint defense numbers and ability to generate turnovers are more sustainable. It’s clear Redick is prioritizing high-effort, high-motor, fly-around players like Finney-Smith, Vanderbilt, Jordan Goodwin, and Gabe Vincent off the bench, which means faster roatations, better close-outs, more deflections and steals. The Lakers have also struggled from three, so even if their defense slips from the top but remains in the top-ten range, their improved offense with an expected Dončić boost and better shooting should help compensate for it.

3-LeBron and Luka partnership, and James playing like an MVP candidate at 40 years old

The second reason for the Lakers' dominant 20-game stretch is the otherworldly play of LeBron James, who, at 40 years old, is averaging 27.3 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 8.1 assists while shooting 54 percent from the field and 40 percent from three. With Dončić's early struggles, James has been the stabilizing force, often keeping the Lakers in games or taking over down the stretch—like in the game against Dallas, where he scored 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Adding another ball-handler and offensive hub in Dončić along with Reaves, who has been playing high-level basketball as well, allows James to pick his spots and conserve energy by playing off the ball. It’s reminiscent of Dončić's partnership with Kyrie Irving in Dallas, where Dončić carried the heavy playmaking load and drew the toughest defensive assignments, allowing Irving to read the game and take over when needed. The attention Dončić is drawing is giving James plenty of easy looks, whether through their QB1-WB1 connection in transition or by simply making the right play when Dončić gets doubled.

My pal Jake Kemp pointed this out—as of now, the shot quality on James's 39 passes from Dončić has been the highest of any teammate in LeBron's career. In his 154 minutes on the court with Dončić, James has an effective field goal percentage of 67 percent. That number is 58 percent otherwise. The sample size is still small, but just by watching the games, it's easy to see how James’s transformation into a wide receiver or running back playing off Dončić makes him even more efficient. It also allows him to pick his spots—mostly with Dončić on the bench—to generate offense for himself and others as a quarterback.

4-The three-point volume increase 📊