Deandre Ayton and the Lakers: Short-Term Fix or Long-Term Solution?
A breakdown of a player with undeniable talent and equally persistent questions
After months of speculation and two long days of waiting in free agency, the Lakers finally got their most important piece in the offseason, a move that will have a cascade effect on all other future moves, by signing the 26-year-old former number one pick, the mercurial big man Deandre Ayton. The Lakers agreed to a two-year, $16.6 million deal with Ayton after he cleared waivers on Wednesday, and the agreement features a player option in the second year.
The process—with Ayton and the Trail Blazers agreeing to a buyout as he entered the final year of his four-year, $133 million deal—may have been unexpected. Or maybe not so much (more on that in a moment). But the result wasn’t surprising. Ayton was a obvious buy-low, low-cost gamble. In fact, just a couple of weeks ago, I speculated on a podcast with Lakers insider Jovan Buha that Ayton might be the kind of quick solution the Lakers would look into as they built a team around Luka Dončić.
However, now that we’re here, in a classic be careful what you wish for, it might come true moment, fans and writers like me who dissect every Lakers possession have to brace ourselves for the full Deandre Ayton experience. What exactly is that? And more importantly, can it change? That’s the question that will define the Lakers’ 2025–26 season. To start answering it, I dove into Ayton’s film and data, and spoke with league observers who followed him closely on a play-by-play basis during his stops in both Phoenix and Portland.
Breakdown highlights
How did we end up here?
Strengths: the skilled big man archetype
Weaknesses: decision making and multiple efforts
The Luka effect
Buying time, good will, and future fit?
1-How did we end up here?
How does a former number one pick, a 7-foot nimble center entering his prime at age 26, end up getting paid by a team not to play for them? Especially in a league that’s shifting back toward valuing skilled big men?
Ayton’s struggles with maturity, consistent effort, and the attention to detail required to play winning basketball are well documented, and so is the Trail Blazers’ growing frustration with those very issues. Ayton’s own dissatisfaction often stems from his desire for a bigger offensive role, while teams have preferred he focus on doing the dirty work. It’s a big part of why the Suns eventually moved on from him, and it will be something to watch closely in his Lakers tenure. To Ayton’s defense, the Trail Blazers are also a team caught between an unresolved ownership situation and a drawn-out rebuild—one marked by uninspiring point guard play and back-to-back drafts focused on raw, developmental centers.
The Lakers, on the other hand, came out of a disappointing and exhausting playoff series where they were clearly undersized and desperate for a big man. Other GMs understood he had to make a move and took full advantage, leaving Pelinka playing from a bad hand.
Did Bill Duffy, who represents not only Ayton but also Luka Dončić and Jaxson Hayes, the big man the Lakers just re-signed to back up Ayton, read the situation and help orchestrate a move to appease his clients? Most likely. This could be the move that revives Ayton’s career, which had been spiraling in the wrong direction. It also gives Dončić two rim-running, lob-catching bigs he values immensely. Both Ayton and Dončić will have a lot to play for and prove next season. Lastly, Ayton on an $8 million per year contract—without the Lakers giving up any assets to get him—is a completely different scenario than acquiring a $30+ million player that would have required sacrificing limited resources. Any evaluation, at least for this season, needs to be viewed through that very different context.
2-Strengths: the skilled big man archetype
Ayton first got on my radar because, despite Dončić’s clear preference for traditional rim-rolling bigs, I’ve long wanted to see him paired with a center who brings a more diverse skill set. Someone like Ivica Zubac, who has thrived as James Harden’s pick-and-roll partner—not just finishing at the rim, but also making plays in the short roll, hitting the floater, punishing a switch or mismatch on the block, or by crashing the offensive glass. Ayton isn’t the defensive anchor that Zubac is, but given the Lakers’ limited resources, he’s about as close as they could realistically get.
He is also a more athletic lob threat, a trait that Dončić wanted in the first place. Seven players finished more than 100 plays on lobs as pick-and-roll screeners over the last four seasons, and Ayton was one of them. Not coincidentally, two other names on that list—Dwight Powell and Daniel Gafford—earned their paychecks catching lobs from Dončić.
Ayton also ranks 14th in overall lob dunks over the same time span, despite spending the last two seasons playing alongside inexperienced playmakers in Portland. While he’s not a pogo-stick vertical target like peak Clint Capela, Daniel Gafford, Jarrett Allen, or Nic Claxton, he’s far from a ground-bound, floor-based big.
You’ll find most of those types of bigs on the next list, made up of players with more than 200 finishes in the short roll.
Lakers fans will likely notice that Ayton and Anthony Davis are the only two players to appear on both lists, which highlights the new Lakers big man’s versatility as a finisher out of the pick-and-roll. Ayton’s soft touch and shooting efficiency on all types of shots inside the arc is his biggest strength. His shooting splits have been consistently elite throughout his career, and he’s converted on mid-range looks at a higher rate than AD.
Ayton ranks in the top 10 (10th) in total post-up volume among centers over the last four seasons. While the lack of force he plays with on the block and his often mechanical moves can be frustrating to watch, he does have a soft hook shot in his arsenal that he hits at a high rate. He’s not quite at the level of Jokić or Zubac in post-up efficiency, but he’s fairly close. He has converted those looks at a 50 percent field goal rate.
When Ayton gets deep seal position and goes to his preferred move—a hook shot over his left shoulder—he’s highly effective. He shoots 55 percent on post shots over his left shoulder (mostly hooks), compared to just 43 percent over his right shoulder, where he often settles for fadeaways.
The ability to punish smaller defenders inside is something most of Dončić’s previous pick-and-roll partners, like Dereck Lively II or Daniel Gafford, lacked. Better teams took advantage of that by guarding them with wings and switching every screen. If Ayton can consistently exploit those mismatches, that tactic will become much harder to pull off.
3-Weaknesses: decision making and multiple efforts
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