Draft Data Deep Dive, Part I: The Cooper Flagg Comparisons You Haven’t Heard Yet
Let’s talk data, models, and other insights on the prodigy prospect
This is part of my offseason deep-dive series. The content comes less frequently than the game-by-game coverage during the season, but with more time spent on data and analysis, each piece aims to be more in-depth, longer, and more meaningful.
We started with the NBA Trends Series, which will continue in the coming weeks. But with the growing appeal and intrigue around Cooper Flagg, the projected number one pick in the upcoming draft where the Mavericks have the first selection, it was time to dig into the draft as well.
Thanks to everyone who sent in questions through the chat thread. Based on your questions and a few of my own, I’ve decided to split this into two parts. Part I focuses on Flagg. Part II will take a closer look at the Lakers’ situation and potential late-draft options — especially athletic wings and point-of-attack defenders.
I’m not a draft expert, and I don’t watch much NCAA. There just isn’t enough time when following the NBA closely, especially last season when I was tracking both Mavericks and Lakers games after the deadline. What I can do is dive into the data and film to look for comparisons and patterns. That approach shaped my optimism about Dereck Lively II and my skepticism around Olivier-Maxence Prosper after the 2023 draft.
Even better, when I notice interesting signals or comps, I can reach out to people who follow prospects more closely. For this series and Q&A, I connected with Nick Kalinowski, a data scientist who covers the NBA Draft and creates scouting reports, breakdowns, and big boards. You’ll find a detailed Q&A with Nick, along with references to his work, models, and other intriguing insights in the final section of this deep-dive.
Today’s highlights:
Cooper Flagg’s two-way promise, breaking the mold. And the comps.
My comparisons based on historical college stats
Cooper Flagg Q&A with Nick Kalinowski
1–Cooper Flagg’s two-way promise, breaking the mold. And the comps.
Even if you haven’t watched a minute of Cooper Flagg play basketball, the hype and comparisons from the last couple of weeks make it hard not to feel truly excited. Best college prospect since Zion Williamson. Best freshman player Duke has ever had. Those are two bold declarations from two of the most respected voices in the draft world — Jonathan Givony and Jay Bilas.
And some of the comparisons have been even more grandiose, making Mavericks fans rightfully question their team’s ceiling next season and whether they should shift from a win-now approach to rebuilding the roster around Flagg. I’ve seen ESPN compare him to Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Pippen, Jayson Tatum, Lamar Odom, and Andrei Kirilenko, while my friend Isaac Harris in Dallas even sees him as the next Kevin Garnett.
Flagg himself has set the bar high, saying he models his game after Jayson Tatum on offense and Jonathan Isaac on defense. If you could actually combine those two, you’d have an elite two-way force and possibly the best player in the NBA. Speaking of models, Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, and Luka Dončić are the only three prospects who ranked ahead of Flagg in Kevin Pelton’s statistical projections for ESPN.
So I’m not breaking any news by saying Flagg will be good. The real question everyone is asking is just how historically good he might be.
2-My comparisons based on historical college stats
By now, you can see that Flagg is such an intriguing prospect and difficult to compare because of his two-way potential and skill set. That’s why names like Leonard and Garnett come up. But even Kawhi wasn’t nearly the passer or high-usage scorer Flagg is at such a young age. Because of that, I split my comparisons into two groups of players: one for offense and one for defense.
Defense
First, it’s really hard to find a college prospect who matches Flagg’s combination of block rate, steal rate, defensive rebound rate, and defensive win share rate.
I don’t necessarily think Flagg will reach the same level of defensive impact as Anthony Davis, Kevin Garnett, or other anchor big types — or even Jonathan Isaac, who is truly elite when healthy. That’s mostly because those players have clear advantages in size and length. Draymond Green is another interesting comparison, partly due to the playmaking element, but he’s also a one-of-a-kind, high-IQ defender who’s tough to replicate.
Maybe Flagg’s competitiveness will help him become one of the best defenders in the league, but that’s hard to project. He’s also not the same kind of on-ball menace that someone like Toumani Camara or peak Ben Simmons was. However, even if his defensive ceiling ends up closer to that of a secondary rim protector and roamer — someone like Tari Eason, a comparison I personally like — that would still make him a very good, All-Defense caliber defender.
Offense
If it’s hard to find comparisons that match Flagg’s rebounding, block, and steal rates, finding a forward with similar scoring, usage, and assist rates might be an even tougher job.
If you filter college stats for players with Flagg’s combination of scoring (over 20 points per 36), assists (over 4 per 36), usage rate (above 25%), and more than 100 three-point attempts in a season, you won’t find wings. Instead, you’ll mostly see high-usage scoring primary playmaking options like Stephen Curry, Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard, and Ja Morant.
A few interesting secondary playmaking wings that showed up in my comparisons once I lowered the thresholds were the previously mentioned Draymond Green and Ben Simmons, along with Evan Turner and Kyle Anderson. We’ll see whether Flagg develops more as a scorer — like Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum, or Paul George — or as a playmaker in the mold of Draymond Green or Ben Simmons. The potential and uncertainty is what makes watching his career path unfold so intriguing.
Nick shared his thoughts on that, along with Flagg’s potential to help fill some of the Mavericks’ playmaking gaps, in the next section.
3-Cooper Flagg Q&A with Nick Kalinowski
Here’s the first part of my Q&A with Nick Kalinowski, where we talked about his draft evaluation process, Cooper Flagg comparisons, concerns and your questions about Flagg’s playmaking and potential fit in Dallas.
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