Is the Mavericks’ Top-10 Defense for Real?

Early numbers look good—but is there more to them?

Photo by Joshua Gateley / Getty Images

Fifteen games into the season, the Mavericks find themselves with an 8-7 record, sitting 11th in the West and 15th overall in the NBA. Certainly not the kind of start fans hoped for.

However, advanced stats paint a brighter picture for this team than their record suggests. Cleaning the Glass ranks Dallas 6th overall with a +7.7 point differential, 5th in offense, and 7th in defense. That makes them one of just four teams in the league to rank in the top 10 on both ends of the floor—elite company.

Point differential, often a better predictor of future success than win-loss record, suggests the Mavericks should already have closer to 11 wins. Big part of the discrepancy comes down to their well-documented clutch struggles: Dallas is 2-6 in close games. A couple more wins in those tight situations, and their record would match the expectations.

While these rankings should give Mavericks fans plenty of reasons to feel optimistic, I’m not fully convinced just yet. The offense, currently ranked 5th, aligns with what was expected after the addition of Klay Thompson and improved shooting over the summer. Seeing this group perform at a high level—even with Luka Dončić still finding his rhythm—is a promising sign for what’s to come.

But the defense is where I remain skeptical. Ranked 7th right now, it’s a surprising jump considering the preseason concerns, especially with Derrick Jones Jr. out of the starting lineup and Thompson replacing him. Watching the Mavericks defend, it doesn’t feel like the same lockdown group we saw late last regular season and in the playoffs. Instead, it seems like they’ve been beating up on weaker teams offensively and struggling to replicate top-10 defense performances against stronger competition.

Defensive splits vs. good and bad offensive teams

To test how closely the numbers align with the eye test, I split the Mavericks’ opponents into two groups based on offensive rankings.

The first group includes teams with bottom-tier offenses: Utah (25th), Chicago (23rd), San Antonio (21st), New Orleans (27th), and Orlando (25th).

The second group features teams with stronger offenses: Indiana (16th), OKC (12th), Golden State (13th), Houston (9th), Denver (10th), Minnesota (11th), and Phoenix (15th).

This chart highlights that all of the Mavericks’ strong defensive performances (where the red dots fall below the dotted line that represents league average defensive rating) came against weaker offenses, while their defense largely struggled against stronger offensive teams.

According to Cleaning the Glass, Dallas boasts the best defense in the NBA when facing bottom-10 offenses (7 games). However, they rank 29th (second worst) against teams ranked 11th–20th on offense (6 games) and 17th against top-10 offensive teams (2 games).

Lack of on-ball defense and pressure?

If you’ve followed my game coverage, you’ll know I often highlight the challenge of providing enough on-ball pressure with a starting five that includes Dončić, Irving, and Thompson. Lack of aggression at point of attack was one of the reasons I speculated about when diving into the numbers to uncover the cause of the Mavericks’ slow starts.