Stats With Context: Mavericks Slow Starts

An interesting pattern to keep an eye on…

NBA Net Rating by quarter / Source: stats nba dot com

This is the second in my Stats With Context breakdowns, following the 10-Game Check where I analyzed key Mavericks trends.

I usually spot patterns—sometimes trends—in games, then dig into the data to see if it backs up what I’m seeing. Sometimes, it’s the other way around: a data point catches my eye, and I look for it on film to add context.

This one’s about the Mavericks’ slow starts. And, as you can see in the chart above, the first quarter has been the problematic one this season so far.

Clutch struggles have gotten most of the spotlight, and I shared some thoughts on that after the Warriors loss. But I think the early deficits and constant catch-up play set up those tough endings. Here’s a quick data breakdown, with context, of course.

NOTE: I use Second Spectrum tracking and NBA official data for the analysis in this article.

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Offensive, defensive and net rating by quarter

Context: To get a clearer picture of the Mavericks' slow starts, I wanted to break down the net rating by quarter into its offensive and defensive components. The first table showed only the net rating by quarter, so this breakdown will help us see whether it’s the offense or defense—or a mix of both—that’s contributing to those early deficits.

What jumps out first is the offense: the offensive rating is lowest in the first period, then steadily improves each quarter. I think part of this is due to incorporating Klay Thompson into the offensive flow, as the team is still working to find the right balance. With more games and chemistry, I expect this to improve.

But the defensive rating is also lower in the first quarter than in the next two, and Jason Kidd has often pointed out the team’s lack of energy at the start of games—which typically affects the defensive end.

On the defensive end, one issue seems to be that lineups featuring Dončić, Irving, and Thompson lack strong on-ball pressure on the perimeter. We saw a similar pattern in the 2022-23 season with Dončić-Irving-Hardaway lineups and, before that, with Dončić-Dinwiddie-Hardaway combinations. While Thompson’s effort has been solid and he’s a better defender than Hardaway or Dinwiddie, he’s still not the on-ball enforcer that Derrick Jones Jr. or Dante Exum were last season.

That’s why I took a closer look at stats that reflect ball pressure and “force”—a term I often use in my game observations—to see if there are any patterns in the data that reveal more about these defensive struggles.

Pick Defense

Context: Pick-and-roll defense was the first area where I saw a big enough discrepancy to reflect those slow, low-energy starts. Especially when we look at the first six minutes of the first quarter—a first point when the first rotations and substitutions happen.

Drive Defense

Context: Drive defense, like pick-and-roll defense, is another area tied to on-ball pressure—and another one where the gap between the first quarter and other periods is noticeable. The difference becomes even more pronounced when focusing only on the first few minutes of the first quarter.