Lakers-Thunder Game 1: What I’m Watching

Quick notes before Lakers-Thunder tips off

Photo by Kevin Terrell / Getty Images

Round two opens tonight as the Los Angeles Lakers face the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 at Paycom Center.

The Lakers come in as the biggest underdogs of all teams left in the conference semifinals. But we’ve kind of been here before. They already pulled one upset while playing undermanned, so we’re used to approaching this series more like a survival guide than a classic preview.

Against this Thunder team, that feels even more true. To have a chance, they’ll need to go into full survival mode, because not many teams can hold up against the buzzsaw that is OKC’s full-court, no-break pressure. I looked at the blueprint yesterday from the rare teams that managed to get through it.

The problem for the Lakers is that the buttons to press in that blueprint are not exactly their strengths.

Still, surprises happen in the playoffs. Game 1 is often the best chance for a team in this spot to steal one and throw a curveball. Maybe JJ Redick and his staff find a new way to rattle OKC. That’s why the playoffs are fun. Here’s what I’m watching tonight.

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What I’m watching: Lakers

• How do they handle the press: The Los Angeles Lakers had huge problems in all four regular season games adjusting to OKC’s pressure and tenacity, turning the ball over at a very high 19.1% rate. The issues carried into the first round against the Houston Rockets, where they posted the highest playoff turnover rate at 19.3%. JJ Redick said the Rockets’ peak pressure is basically OKC’s baseline, which tells you what’s coming. So how do the Lakers withstand that? I’ll be curious to see who brings the ball up. Is it Austin Reaves, Marcus Smart, or do we see others helping to ease the pressure? Can they clean up some of the careless or predictable entries to LeBron James at the elbows? It’s easy to say they need to take care of the ball. It’s a different challenge against a ball-hounding trio like Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso.

• Can they create advantages: Judging by the struggles they had offensively against the Houston Rockets, who had two clear weak links to go at, the next big question, closely tied to the first one, is whether the Lakers can find any kind of consistent offense like they did in the first three games of that series. Who creates the advantage, and how? The most obvious path is finding ways to get LeBron on the block in a favorable matchup against a smaller defender. The Thunder’s lack of size on the wing might be their only real weakness. But this is also a team that protects the rim at a high level, so even in those situations LeBron will likely need to raise his mid-range and three-point shotmaking from what we saw in the first round.

• Is this an Austin Reaves series: Reaves returned for the last two games of the first round, and even though his outside shot and rhythm were not there after a long layoff, he still made a big impact with his downhill speed and paint pressure. For the Lakers to have any real chance in this series, they probably need the best version of him that we saw earlier in the season. This is a tough matchup. Wallace and Caruso, along with the weakside help of Holmgren, are about as difficult a defensive group as it gets for Reaves, especially because they can match his speed. Fair or not, if he struggles again, the narrative around him having issues against aggressive playoff defenses will only get louder heading into a key offseason.

• Smart vs. SGA matchup: Smart was one of the heroes of the Lakers’ upset against the Rockets, showing he can raise his level and tenacity in the playoffs. He consistently made winning plays and was arguably the most impactful defender in the series. If he has another gear, he’ll need it here against Gilgeous-Alexander, the MVP and one of the most consistent scorers in the game. Can Smart make him work for his points? Can he continue to generate enough defensive plays to swing possessions? We’ll see how the Lakers approach SGA overall, but whether they switch and gap help, or lean into blitzing like they did at times against Kevin Durant, the goal should be the same: force the other Thunder players to beat them.

What I’m watching: Lakers ultimate stress test

• Athleticism and depth gap: Watching the first couple of games of the second round, especially the Timberwolves vs the Spurs matchup, the level of physicality, athleticism, and speed really stood out. That’s an area where the Lakers are at a disadvantage, so how they handle this young and aggressive Thunder team will be something to watch. Can they match the speed of Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Wallace, and Mitchell? How will the two other heroes of round one, Ayton and Hachimura, fare against not just the Thunder’s physicality, but also in a series where much faster processing speed is required? Can Ayton dominate on the boards like he did in the last three games of the previous series? As I explained in the blueprint, a big rebounding margin is the prerequisite to make the game more even and compensate for the Thunder’s unavoidable edge in turnovers.

  The other issue could be depth. The Lakers rely heavily on their top six playing extended minutes, while OKC attacks in waves. Teams rarely survive the first push against SGA and the starters, and then Wallace, Caruso, Joe, and others come in with even more pressure in the second stint. Matching that tempo for 48 minutes will be difficult without some unexpected help from the Lakers bench.

What I’m watching: Key matchup

• Austin Reaves vs. Ajay Mitchell: There are other directions to go here. You could look at Ayton vs. Hartenstein, or LeBron vs. Dort, who will likely take on the responsibility of guarding James with Jalen Williams out. But this guard matchup might be the most intriguing. With the starting units on the floor, they might even end up defending each other. I already mentioned why Reaves’ ability to create problems, either as a driver or a pull-up threat, will be key for the Lakers. On the other end, Mitchell will take on a bigger role as a secondary creator until Williams returns. The 23-year-old is on a similar path to Reaves, a late find who has quickly shown real promise as an on-ball creator and scorer. Mitchell averaged 15 points per game in that role in the first round, even if the efficiency was not there at just 36% from the field. The Lakers likely won’t be able to slow down Gilgeous-Alexander consistently, but they can’t afford for Mitchell to get going as well.

What I’m watching: Thunder

• Three-point shooting from their defensive specialists: To pull off an upset, you need a few things to swing your way. The Lakers took advantage of Durant’s absence, Houston’s shooting limitations, and a couple of big shooting games from Smart, Kennard, and James to take control of that series early against the Rockets.

  For the Lakers to stay competitive against the Thunder, they’ll likely need a similar shooting swing, but flipped the other way. They will live with shots from Dort, Wallace, Caruso, and even Holmgren. All are capable, but streaky. The Lakers will need those shots to not fall if they want a real chance to steal a game. The Thunder are so good that even that might not be enough, but it is close to a prerequisite.