Lakers-Wolves Series Preview: The Case for a Lakers Win

A breakdown of the numbers, the film, and the tactical edge that gives the Lakers the upper hand

Photo by Harry How / Getty Images

After an incredibly tight race in the West, the playoffs are finally here. And with how stacked the conference is this year, there are no easy matchups. Every series has the potential to be highly competitive. Even the 1–8 between Oklahoma City and Memphis, or whoever wins the Mavs-Kings play-in game, should be a fun one.

But no matchup is more compelling than Lakers vs. Timberwolves.

The Luka Dončić trade and his move to Los Angeles turned this into must-watch basketball. Not just because of the star power—Dončić, LeBron James, and Anthony Edwards—but because it sets up one of the most fascinating battles of styles in the entire first round. Superstars will get the headlines, and as we saw in last year’s conference finals with Dončić, they can take over a series. But the tactical Xs and Os chess match between J.J. Redick and Chris Finch should be just as exciting for all my fellow basketball sickos.

It’ll be a matchup of Wolves size and length versus Lakers wing bulk. A battle of great defense against elite playmaking. Of depth and balance versus top-heavy, ball-handling wizardry.

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Today’s highlights:

1. The Timberwolves are really, really good 📈

2. The playmaking and shot-making edge 📊

3. Conley as the X-factor and primary target?

4. The Lakers' playoff manipulating superpower (🎞️VIDEO)

5. Neutralizing Gobert

6. Slow pace and plenty of rest 📊

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1-The Timberwolves are really, really good 📈

Before I get into why I think the Lakers will win this series, let me be clear: I don’t expect them to do it without a fight—and probably a few serious scratches. A Timberwolves win wouldn’t be a huge upset. They’re really, really good.

They finished the regular season as the fifth-best team in point differential at +5.2—by comparison, the Lakers ranked 13th at +1.6. Minnesota was also one of only five teams to finish with both a top ten offense and defense.

The Wolves started the season slow and flew under the radar for a while, rarely mentioned among the league’s top teams. They went through early growing pains, especially after replacing Karl-Anthony Towns with Julius Randle just before the season. But once they got healthy and on the same page, they took off—finishing 17–4 since March 1st with a +10.4 point differential and heading into the playoffs with confidence at an all-time high.

The Wolves’ 8-man rotation—featuring Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker off the bench—is one of the most balanced and effective in the league. Their combination of depth, size, defense, and shooting, paired with Anthony Edwards’ individual brilliance, is exactly why I wouldn’t blame anyone for picking them to win this series.

2-The playmaking and shot-making edge 📊

The first reason I’m picking the Lakers is also the most obvious one: their ball-handling star trio of Dončić, LeBron, and Reaves.

I believe shot-making—especially from players who can create for themselves and others—is the most important skill in a competitive, evenly matched playoff series. The Lakers have three proven creators in Dončić, LeBron, and Reaves. The Wolves have Anthony Edwards, but their second option, Julius Randle, is someone I trust far less than any of the Lakers’ top three.

And it’s not just shot-making. Passing and decision-making are just as important in high-stakes playoff games. This—more specifically, the lack of it—is what hurt the Timberwolves in last year’s Conference Finals against the Mavericks. Dončić and James are two of the best passers and decision-makers in the league. That’s simply not the main strength of either Edwards or Randle.

3-Conley as the X-factor and primary target?

Photo by Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

When talking about playmaking, Mike Conley is Wolves third player—and in my opinion, the key piece—in this series. He’s the glue guy, the connector, the one who keeps the Wolves offense structured and organized. At 37 years old, he’s not the same kind of self-creator as the other stars in this matchup, but he is Minnesota’s best passer and ball mover, leads the team in assist rate, and a reliable three-point shooter.

Source: Second Spectrum

Minnesota is a pick-and-roll heavy team, ranking third in the NBA in pick-and-roll frequency. Conley is their secondary option as a pick-and-roll ball-handler behind Edwards, and the best at utilizing Rudy Gobert and keeping him engaged in the offense.

Because of Dončić’s past highlights and success, most of the attention heading into this series is on how the Lakers might attack Gobert in space. But targeting Conley and trying to play him off the floor could be just as important, if not more.

4-The Lakers' playoff manipulating superpower (🎞️VIDEO)