Mark Williams Deep-Dive: Luka Dončić’s New Pick-and-Roll Target
Data and film on the good, the bad, and the ugly—plus insights from Hornets insiders
This is the first deep dive in my expanded coverage that goes beyond just Mavericks players, bringing insights on Luka Dončić, the Dallas Mavericks, the Los Angeles Lakers, and other NBA storylines.
For my Mavs fans, i know this is a painful time. But for those who’ll want them, there will be more Mavs breakdowns, I just did a quick analysis on Max Christie and Caleb Martin yesterday.
As for Luka and the Lakers, GM Rob Pelinka didn’t waste any time finding the first piece to complement his new superstar. The Lakers traded Dalton Knecht, Cam Reddish, a 2031 unprotected first-round pick, and a 2030 pick swap to the Charlotte Hornets for center Mark Williams, addressing the biggest hole in their roster.
I’ve watched Dončić for over six seasons and all 472 of his Mavericks games (with play-by-play notes for most of them—yes, I am what J.J. Redick’s calls a sicko). Add preseason and exhibition games on top of that. I watched him at Real Madrid and follow the Slovenian National Team closely.
More importantly for this analysis, I’ve watched Dončić play with many centers of a similar archetype to Williams, a rim rolling vertical spacing lob threat. From the early, often painful beginnings with DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Powell, Willie Cauley-Stein, and even JaVale McGee to last season’s renaissance with two athletic specimens in Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. So, you can bet I won’t miss the next chapter, the next iteration with the Lakers and their two lob threats in Williams and Jaxson Hayes.
In this Mark Williams deep dive, I’ll integrate this crucial important part—the Dončić partnership angle—while also incorporating data, film, and evaluations from my Hornets insiders who have watched Williams closely in Charlotte over the last two and a half seasons. Hornets beat reporter James Plowright of CLTure was a key contributor to this analysis.
The archetype and comparisons
Williams, measured at 7-foot-2 in shoes with a 242-pound frame and a 7-foot-6 wingspan before the 2022 draft, is a prototype rim rolling, rim finishing big. At his size and massive wingspan, he is the biggest one Dončić has played with, excluding Kristaps Porzingis and Boban Marjanović, whose playstyles don’t quite fit the archetype.
During Dončić's introductory press conference on Monday, Pelinka was very specific about what Dončić prefers in his big man, saying, "Vertical lob threat, that is the key to spacing that Luka likes to play with.”
Not that he needed a reminder, last year's Mavericks success with two athletic lob threats in Lively and Gafford, providing rim pressure at all times, was likely the template Pelinka wants to replicate with Williams and Hayes.
When analyzing Williams’ predecessor, Lively, in the past, I made several archetype comparisons based on more than 25 years of historical data. I’ll use some of the players that popped up then, players like Jarrett Allen and Mitchell Robinson alongside the two Mavericks bigs to gauge Williams’ current career trajectory based on the advanced metrics DARKO and EPM.
Advanced numbers are just one signal, not the only truth, but Lively stands out in these comparisons, a testament to his defensive versatility and impact, while Williams' advanced numbers are closer to those of Gafford.
Offense: lob / rim pressure
Based on history, Pelinka’s comments, and reports that Gafford was one of the players Dončić liked before last year’s deadline, it’s clear that the fit on offense—the lob threat in the pick-and-roll—is what Dončić prioritizes and values most in a big man.
And there is A LOT to like here. Williams is a young, super long, athletic big man with a huge catch radius, good hands, and a strong ability to catch lobs. Williams will bring size and finishing ability that will make Dončić or LeBron James tough to guard with conservative drop coverage.
Offense: short roll and playmaking
This is another positive and an area where Williams has made significant strides as an offensive player this season, which is why I believe he’s probably a better offensive player than both Lively and Gafford at the moment.
According to my Hornets observers, Williams has improved the most as a short roll decision-maker, consistently making the right read and the right pass. This is a critical skill in situations where Dončić gets doubled or blitzed—something that happens often, as he has been the most blitzed player in the NBA over the last couple of seasons. Williams is not a ball-handler on the catch, but he is a good decision-maker, and the numbers back up his rapid development. His assist rate nearly tripled this season (as his usage as an elbow hub went up), and he ranks in the top 90th percentile among bigs in turnover rate.
The Mavericks coaching staff and fans have raved Lively’s decision-making on the short roll, but in comparison, Williams has posted an even higher assist rate while maintaining a much lower turnover rate this season.
Offense: Post scoring and offensive rebounding
The last coverage a big needs to counter when playing out of the pick-and-roll is attacking a switching defense. Teams have tried this approach—most notably the Celtics in the Finals—taking away the Mavericks' lob threats by defending the center with wing players and switching all pick actions.
There are two ways for a big to punish that. One is the ability to score on the block, and the other is overpowering wings in the paint and dominating the offensive boards (peak Clint Capela comes to mind). Short-term, Williams can do more damage on the boards, as he is a very good offensive rebounder thanks to his size and length. Rebounding numbers don’t put him in elite Capela, Mitchell Robinson, Zach Edey or Kevon Looney category, but better than Livelvy, Gafford or Allen from my comparions. At 23 years old, strength is an area for improvement that would help him on the offensive glass.
Regarding his post up game, it's very raw and in the early development stage. Williams is not (yet) the type of player to seal, take a couple of dribbles, and back a smaller defender down. He will seal or post in transition or other mismatch opportunities, but it’s mostly seal, catch, and finish.
Williams did expand his range from strictly rim shots to floater range this season, as you can see from the increased mid-range frequency in his shot profile.
However, floater and hook shots are still a work in progress. He is 27 of 72, or 38%, from short-mid range, and only 10 of 29, or 34%, on his post shots so far this year.
Defense: rim protection
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