Mavs Game Preview: Game 11 @ Warriors [Game of the Week]
The return of the Klay
After two nail-biting games and disappointing losses, the Mavericks are in for another emotional showdown. This time, it’s the much-anticipated first game for Klay Thompson against his former team—a return to the place where he won so much and will likely be immortalized with a statue someday.
If we add that this is the first game of the Emirates NBA Cup 2024, then picking this game for our Game of the Week was an easy choice. Remember, Game of the Week previews and post-game notes are fully available for everyone. For other games, some insights will be exclusive to paid subscribers, so if you’re able, please consider upgrading to support the work!
This game won’t just be packed with emotions; it’s going to be tough. The Warriors, sitting at 8-2, are one of the league’s biggest surprises, looking like a team re-energized around their veteran core. As one of my coaching friends put it, Steve Kerr seems to be schooling the NBA with a FIBA-inspired brand of basketball.
Kerr is running a legit 13-man rotation (see the long list of names under Key Reserves in our Game Facts section), with no player averaging more than 28 minutes per game. This approach keeps players fresh, enabling them to play high-energy, short bursts with intense ball pressure from the start. It’s nearly the opposite of where the Mavericks are right now, with stars logging heavy minutes and a noticeable lack of energy and defensive pressure in the opening minutes.
So, the Mavericks will need to be ready from the start, prepared to match the Warriors' force with one of their own.
Mavs (5-5) @ Warriors (8-2) game facts
Rest: DAL on 1 day of rest; GSW on 1 day of rest
Mavs 2023-24 record vs. Warriors: 3-1
DAL injuries: Luka Dončić (probable), P.J. Washington (doubtful), Dereck Lively II (questionable), Dante Exum (OUT)
GSW injuries: Andrew Wiggins (questionable)
GSW projected starting 5: Steph Curry (G), De'Anthony Melton (G), Andrew Wiggins (F), Draymond Green (F), Trayce Jackson-Davis (C)
GSW key reserves: Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Moses Moody, Kyle Anderson, Kevon Looney, Gary Payton II
GSW Rotation:
Three key questions heading into the game
How will Klay Thompson and his teammates respond to this high-profile game?
Will the Mavericks adapt to the Warriors' force and pace?
Can the Mavericks find enough shooting to compete with the hot-shooting Warriors?
Mavs on offense | Warriors on defense
The Mavericks' offense, which has been trending up in recent games, will face its toughest test of the season. The Warriors currently rank as the 2nd-best defense in the NBA, surrounding veterans Curry and Green with a host of versatile defenders.
Gone are the lineups with Curry, Chris Paul, and Klay providing minimal perimeter resistance; now, the defensive pressure is present for the entire game. With Wiggins, Kuminga, Anderson, Melton, and Payton II, Kerr has plenty of wing options to throw at Dončić and Irving. The Warriors force a lot of tough shots, with their opponents posting the 3rd worst shot quality in the league. This typically means a high number of contested mid-range attempts—something the Mavericks have seen and taken too often themselves this season.
Wing depth and short stints have enabled Kerr to install a high-pressure, aggressive defense (the Warriors have the highest blitz percentage in the NBA). Combine that with Green—one of the smartest back-line manipulators—anchoring the defense, and it’s a challenge for any team to break through. The Mavericks struggled to ‘solve’ Kevin Durant roaming and helping off Naji Marshall and other hesitant shooters, and I’m sure they’ll see a lot of Green in that free-safety role tonight. The Warriors will apply heavy gap help and pressure to limit space and options for Dončić and Irving, especially when they hunt for Curry on defense, which means two things:
a) Dončić, in particular, will need to hit tough mid-range and step-back shots, and
b) Marshall, Gafford, Dinwiddie, Hardy, and others will need to make their shots and execute quick, smart decisions when the Warriors’ defense collapses around the Mavs’ primary shot-makers.
The Mavericks are good at controlling the ball (2nd in turnover rate) but they’ll need to be even more careful tonight. The Warriors excel at turning defense into offense, ranking 2nd in points off turnovers. One of the Warriors' weaknesses is size and rebounding on the defensive end—something that Gafford, and especially Lively if he’s good to go, should look to exploit.
Mavs on defense | Warriors on offense
Offensively, things are still built around Curry’s gravity and Green’s IQ and passing, combined with constant movement and motion. Thompson’s role as the off-screen, high-volume three-point shooter has been successfully taken over by Buddy Hield. Hield is the Warriors' second-leading scorer, averaging 18 points per game and converting threes at an unbelievable 49 percent clip. If Marshall starts and is assigned the task of chasing Curry around, either Irving or Thompson will have to do the same with Hield—which will be a bit like that two Spidermen meme.
The Mavericks recently struggled against a similarly well-balanced, three-point shooting team in the Suns. However, the Warriors are currently even better, ranking 4th in the NBA in three-point accuracy at 40 percent. Of their top five scorers, only Kuminga, at 34 percent, could be considered a weak link. The others—Curry, Hield, Wiggins, and Moody—are all currently shooting 40 percent or better from three. Even Green is off to a hot start, converting threes at a surprising 45 percent clip.
I suspect the Mavericks will still test and dare Kuminga, Wiggins, Anderson, and Green to make a few shots, but if they do, it will be challenging to provide help and show bodies on Curry’s and Hield’s screen actions.
Scouting the Warriors
I won’t spend too many words here, as I’ve already written extensively about how the Warriors are reinventing themselves around the core of Curry, Green, and a reinvigorated Wiggins. They replaced the older Thompson and Paul with Hield—who looks made for their movement offense—and added two connecting pieces in Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton.
Their style of play is the complete opposite of the Mavericks’. While the Mavericks trust the ball in one of their two stars' hands to find and exploit advantages, the Warriors rely on ball movement, off-ball actions, cutting, and passing. The Mavericks are among the top teams for isolation plays, while the Warriors rank near the bottom. The Warriors’ offense features the most passes per 100 possessions, while the Mavericks make the fewest. These kinds of contrasts make NBA basketball fascinating to watch and add another intriguing storyline to a game already rich with many.
Final thoughts
The Mavericks will look to avoid a three-game losing streak but will need to beat one of the best teams in the conference to do so. Their last two attempts, against Phoenix and Denver, came down to the wire, decided on the final possession. As frustrating as those two losses were, the Mavericks proved that even if not at full strength or in their best form, they can hang with the West's elite. Tonight, they need to show they can close it out.