Mavs Game Preview: Game 19 vs Knicks [Game of the Week]
Jalen Brunson and the NBA's best offense come to town
The Mavericks are concluding their three-game mini-stretch against the East with a game against the Knicks, as Jalen Brunson makes his return to Dallas. It's a matchup between two teams that didn't start the season well but have found a groove lately, with both winning five of their last six games. The teams have similar records and are ranked side-by-side in point differential (New York 7th, Dallas 6th), setting up what should be a closely contested battle.
The Mavericks' defense has struggled against strong offensive teams, making this matchup a huge test. The Knicks currently boast the NBA's best offense, scoring at an incredible rate of 124.6 points per 100 possessions. The addition of Karl-Anthony Towns has transformed the Knicks into the kind of team that presents the Mavericks with their biggest defensive challenges: a good shooting team with a stretch big who spreads the floor and stretches the defense. The Mavericks couldn't solve that challenge in their last try against the Pacers, and their second crack at it will be even tougher. This season, the Brunson-Towns combo is a supercharged version of the Haliburton-Turner tandem that gives Dallas so many problems.
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Mavs (10-8) vs Knicks (10-7)
Rest: DAL on 1 day of rest; NYK on 1 days of rest
Mavs 2023-24 record vs. NYK: 2-0
DAL injuries: Luka Dončić (OUT), Dante Exum (OUT), Klay Thompson (questionable), Quentin Grimes (questionable), Dereck Lively II (questionable)
NYK injuries: Mitchell Robinson (OUT), Precious Achiuwa (OUT)
NYK projected starting 5: Jalen Brunson (G), Josh Hart (G), Mikal Bridges (F), OG Anunoby (F), Karl-Anthony Towns (C)
NYK key reserves: Miles McBride, Cameron Payne, Jericho Sims
NYK Rotation:
Three key questions heading into the game
Can the Mavericks' defense make a statement against the NBA's best offense?
Can the Mavericks' depth and pace be the antidote to the Knicks' top-heavy starting five playing big minutes?
Which team will set the terms and pace for this game?
Mavs on offense | Knicks on defense
You'd think a team with Tom Thibodeau, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, and others would be defense-first, but this version of the Knicks is quite the opposite. They're essentially a replica of last year's Pacers: the best offense in the NBA paired with a bottom-ten defense.
New York ranks 23rd in overall defense and an even worse 28th in half-court defense. So, Dallas will need to be methodical and execute well in the half-court, focusing on attacking the two weak points in the Knicks' lineup: Brunson and Towns. We'll see if the usually conservative Thibodeau opts for a more aggressive plan, similar to what other teams have used against Irving in Dončić's absence—showing two defenders or blitzing to help Towns contain Irving and force others to beat them. Regardless, Dallas will need to keep attacking the rim, as Towns is the only player in the Knicks' core rotation taller than 6-foot-7, and he's not a good rim protector. In fact, Towns is the worst at opponent field goal percentage at the rim among players who have defended more than 50 shots as the closest defender. The Mavericks have transformed into a high-volume rim pressure team over the last five games, and continuing to drive against close-outs after Irving draws attention, while feeding the big men, should remain a top priority against the Knicks.
The Knicks help Towns by shrinking the floor and packing the paint, often at the expense of the three-point shot. New York ranks 27th in opponent three-point frequency, meaning they allow the fourth-most threes in the league.
The Knicks are a slow paced, low-mistake team and one thing they do well is they’re not giving up easy opportunities: they don’t commit turnovers (2nd best in turnover rate), they limit fast break points (2nd best in opponents' fast break points allowed), and they rebound effectively (3rd best in opponents' second-chance points allowed).
The Mavericks might need to score at a very high rate—above 120 points—to win this one, as that has been the key in five of the Knicks' seven losses. The only two teams that managed to beat the Knicks by getting stops were Houston and Cleveland.
Mavs on defense | Knicks on offense
The reason the Mavericks might need to win another shootout is that it's going to be extremely difficult to stop the Knicks' offense. The Knicks currently boast the NBA's top-ranked offense, powered by their high-scoring tandem of Brunson (24.9 PPG, 41% from three) and Towns (26.3 PPG, 47% from three).
Brunson is the head of the snake—their only true ball-handler and main initiator in pick-and-roll situations. He'll keep dribbling and using screens until he finds an angle for himself or for Towns. Brunson leads the NBA in both average touch length and average dribbles taken. Both Brunson and Towns are shooting above 40% from three, which, combined with Brunson's deadly mid-range game and Towns' ability to exploit smaller defenders on a switch in the post, currently makes them the most efficient, high-volume pick-and-roll duo in the NBA. I mentioned the Mavericks' challenges against 5-out offenses in the intro; the Brunson-Towns combo features the highest frequency of pick-and-rolls in that setup. Lively, Gafford, and others will need to stay highly focused when Towns pops out for a three, as well as on his early offense trail-three attempts.
Another reason the Knicks have been so hot out of the gate is their shooting. They currently rank second in the NBA in three-point accuracy and third in mid-range accuracy. Everyone in their short rotation, except Mikal Bridges (30% from three), is having a good shooting season. Even Josh Hart, who I expect the Mavericks will challenge to make threes early, is shooting 37% from beyond the arc. This makes it much more difficult to provide help or add additional defenders to stop the Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll.
We’ll see if Jason Kidd opts for the P.J. Washington - Maxi Kleber pairing in critical moments of the game, as it would allow Dallas to switch Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll actions.
Scouting the Knicks
I covered most of the tendencies on both sides of the ball in the previous sections, so I'll highlight an obvious Thibodeau quirk here. Once again, we see Thibs using short rotations, with the main players logging heavy minutes. The trade for Towns involved sending Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo to the Minnesota Timberwolves, reducing the team's bench strength, and with Mitchell Robinson's injury, the situation has become even more extreme this season.
The Knicks have five key players averaging 33 minutes per game or more, with Miles McBride being the only substitute seeing extensive playing time. Most nights, they're running a 7- or 8-man rotation.
Dallas has played several high-paced games recently, so perhaps pushing the pace and using an extended rotation with shorter, high-energy stints could be a strategy to tire out the Knicks as the game progresses.
Final thoughts
The Mavericks faced the Knicks last year at American Airlines Center in a similar situation—without Luka Dončić. Kyrie Irving stepped up, scoring 44 points in one of his best games as a Maverick, including a 20-point explosion in the third quarter. Irving had a similar moment in the fourth quarter of the last game in Atlanta, and as long as he's there, and Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, and others continue to step up in Dončić's absence, the Mavericks should have a chance.
NYK also allows the worst fg% in the paint. Mavs 3rd best in FGA in the paint. Gotta stay in attack mode
If they allow open 3s it would really help if Klay can play to help space the floor