This Week in Mavs Basketball: Win Projection, Welcome to New Readers, and Quick Western Conference Rankings
Plus Luka back in Dallas with real basketball talk starting next week
Before I dive in, I want to give a big hello to all the new subscribers who joined us here on digginbasketball over the last week or so. Welcome aboard! I hope you enjoy the unique style of Mavs analysis and become a part of our growing community.
This post is going to be more of a bulletin board-style update, rather than the in-depth analysis breakdowns I typically write. With the unofficial start of the season right around the corner (Mavs media day is Monday), I had the privilege of watching Luka Dončić’s last workout here in Slovenia on Wednesday before traveling back to Dallas. It was a full practice with local team Ilirija, which his father Saša manages. I can’t go into details due to the privacy of the setup, but my friend and mentor Marc Stein recently provided an update. All I’ll add to that is that everyone should be hyped for training camp and the new season!
With that in mind, I want to reflect on what you can already find here on digginbasketball in terms of coverage and key themes going into the new season that will make sure you’re fully informed for key training camp battles and beyond, and give you a sense of what to expect moving forward.
For my loyal readers (you guys rock!), feel free to skip ahead to the second part where I’ll dive into my Mavs win total prediction for next season and offer an early take on the Western Conference rankings, as requested by one of those readers, Donald. I’m already starting to integrate your ideas into my coverage, so keep them coming!
A quick tribute to Zach Lowe
For those who missed the news yesterday, Zach Lowe has been laid off by ESPN. Zach has been an inspiration and a huge part of my basketball world for what feels like forever. His detailed breakdowns, thoughtful analysis, and ability to blend X’s and O’s with data and storytelling is something I’ve always admired. I’m not pretentious enough to say I’m on his level…but my goal with digginbasketball is to offer you that type of analysis.
It’s especially important now, as nuanced analysis of the game is giving way to hot takes and the loudest voices. This is why it’s crucial to support local analysts—people who live and die with your team and know it in detail. I’m not saying that should be me necessarily, but we’re privileged in DFW sports with plenty of great minds. I’m fortunate to call some of them mentors, like Marc Stein, Bob Sturm, Jamey Newberg, David Castillo, and my pal Jake Kemp and his Dumb Zone crew.
Building that knowledge and dissecting your favorite team takes years. But when things go away, they rarely come back, and when they do, they’re never the same.
Your guide to the Mavericks season: what we’ve done and where we’re headed
Digginbasketball will turn two months old on Monday, but I hope we’ve already covered some key Mavericks themes to keep you informed and hyped for the start of training camp. Here’s a quick overview for anyone who missed something or wants to revisit key content:
Key Mavericks team analysis and themes:
An overview of the rotation and pecking order for all players 1 to 20 (I'll update this as we get new info from Media Day and training camp)
The impact of adding Klay Thompson and how it sets the roadmap for the Mavericks to become a top 5 offense
Exploring lineup flexibility and the potential of a small-ball alternative
Win projection for the Mavericks in 2024-25 (originally in D Magazine—see updated thoughts at the end of this article)
Player outlooks and key questions for 2024-25:
Deep dives into the new additions: Quentin Grimes, Naji Marshall, and Klay Thompson (X&O video type of a look coming soon — based on another reader suggestion)
A data-driven analysis of Kyrie Irving's remaining peak years
Player Cards for: Dereck Lively II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, P.J. Washington, Jaden Hardy, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dante Exum
Introduction to the world of NBA data and analytics:
Volume 1: Introduction and history + the concept of possession-based analysis
Volume 2: Expanding beyond the box score + the concept of the four factors
Volume 3: Mavs analytics history and another key concept (coming soon!)
One of the things I loved back when paper magazines were still a thing was the NBA yearly almanacs. I’d read them over and over, and I want to structure this website in a similar way. That’s why you’ll notice different categories popping up at the top, making it easier to find and revisit the content you enjoyed most.
Mavs win projection and my early Western Conference rankings
On Wednesday, D Magazine published my detailed look at the Mavericks’ win projections for the 2024-25 season. If you missed it, you can find the link here. For those who didn’t get a chance to check it out, here’s a TL;DR version of the key points—because understanding this will be the starting point for my Western Conference rankings below.
I shared two tables in that article. The first one is the Mavs’ win record over the last five years, ever since Dončić’s rookie season. Why is it important? Because it shows that every time the Mavs put even a somewhat competent team around Dončić, they’ve played at a 47-52 win pace. And 50-52 wins, as projected by Vegas, should be the floor for this team barring any major injuries.
But I think the ceiling for this team should be higher, in the mid to high 50s. This is the best team the Mavs have assembled around Dončić. And unlike the two most successful teams of the Dončić era—the 2021-22 squad that reached the Western Conference Finals and last year’s Finals team—this roster is set before training camp even begins.
There will be two major hurdles to reaching, let’s say, 55 or more wins: the first is the stacked Western Conference, where eleven of the 15 teams are projected to finish above .500, meaning at least 43 wins.
Second is the availability of the two stars. If Irving can play around 60 games again, and the Mavericks, with more talent around him, can reduce Dončić’s usage and minutes (resulting in fewer games missed—if he sits out eight instead of 12 to 15, that’s an automatic 3 to 4 win bump), I believe Dallas can reach a top-three seed in the West.
But the West is going to be an onslaught, which could deflate all win totals. Wins aren’t the priority anyway—seeding for the playoffs will be. Dallas needs a clearer path this time, unlike last season when they faced four of the NBA’s top five teams starting from the lower end of the bracket. Dallas will need to overtake one of OKC, Minnesota, or Denver to reach the top three, while also holding off plenty of challengers from behind. This is the time of year when you can get excited about every team—well, maybe except the Clippers (because of another Kawhi Leonard setback and injury news). In my opinion, Memphis is the most dangerous among the challengers. They won 50+ games in the two seasons prior to last year’s struggles, and Taylor Jenkins’ teams are always crazy competitive, guaranteeing a top-10 defense.
That being said, here are my early Western Conference rankings for the top twelve teams, along with a quick thought on each.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Everyone’s favorite in the West, and it’s hard to argue otherwise. OKC won the conference last season with 57 wins, finishing top 5 in both offense and defense. They added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein in the summer. Dort and Caruso (with Cason Wallace off the bench) might form the best defensive backcourt in the NBA, and Hartenstein provides a big boost in their one major weakness—size and rebounding on both ends.
Dallas Mavericks: I’m bullish on the Mavericks. This team showed its potential after the trade deadline and during the playoffs, winning at almost a 70 percent pace. A full training camp and a complete season with Lively, Washington, Gafford, and the other additions should lead to a much stronger start than in previous seasons under J Kidd. Klay Thompson alone should push Dallas back into being one of the highest-volume three-point shooting teams. Grimes and Marshall were also solid pickups. There’s finally enough talent and depth around Dončić—no excuses for the Mavs not to aim high this season.
Memphis Grizzlies: It’s tough to put the Grizzlies above the Nuggets and Timberwolves, and this one could make me look silly, but I have some doubts about both of those teams. The Grizzlies had a top-5 defense in the two seasons before last year’s debacle and feature two former Defensive Player of the Year winners in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marcus Smart. Ja Morant missed all but 9 games last season, and Smart played only 20, so I expect both to be highly motivated. Rookie big man Zach Edey is the big question mark, but I trust Jenkins to make the defense work, even with a less mobile big. Plus, they have some underrated defensive headaches like Vince Williams Jr. and Scotty Pippen Jr. coming off the bench. Lack of shooting could be a problem.
Denver Nuggets: It’s hard to bet against Nikola Jokić. The three-time MVP never misses games, and he alone is almost a guarantee for 47-50 wins. But this is the second straight offseason where the Nuggets have lost a key member of the rotation: after Bruce Brown last year, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope signed with Orlando this summer. KCP is one of the best 3-and-D role players in the league, and his defense and especially his shooting will be hard to replace. Christian Braun and Peyton Watson will try to fill that role, but there’s a reason why KCP started on two championship teams. Bench depth is another issue (swapping Reggie Jackson for Russell Westbrook is a risky move for what was already the worst team in the NBA in three-point frequency), and the health of Jamal Murray, who didn’t look great playing for Canada during the Olympics, remains a concern.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Another team that could make me look silly. The Wolves won 56 games last season and had the best defense in the NBA by a huge margin. Anthony Edwards is a stud and only getting better. But Mike Conley will be 37 on opening night, and he’s the one who provides structure for an offense that can get chaotic at times with Edwards and Towns. Conley played 76 games at almost 30 minutes per game last season, which will be hard to replicate. They also lost Kyle Anderson, who was the other connector, glue guy, and a very good defender. I don’t think 37-year-old Joe Ingles is a valid replacement. Rudy Gobert won his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award last season, but he’s another player who had a rough Olympics run, and at age 32, some advanced stats show signs of a potential decline. They’ll need Rob Dillingham, their 8th overall pick in the draft, to make an impact quickly and provide scoring and shot creation off the bench.
Phoenix Suns: The order of the next few teams could go in any direction, especially with the older teams that rely heavily on aging superstars. The first team is the Suns, led by Kevin Durant, who turns 36 on Sunday. KD played 75 games last year, his highest total since his Achilles injury in 2020. Mike Budenholzer is the new head coach, and he’s the main reason I have the Suns ranked above the other teams in this group. The Suns finally added a point guard in Tyus Jones, brought in Monte Morris for shooting, and replaced Drew Eubanks with Mason Plumlee over the summer. Royce O'Neale and Grayson Allen will also help shore up the wing defense. Beal’s and Durant’s availability are big wild cards, but if they can stay relatively healthy, I expect Bud to turn this group into a very strong regular season team. One thing to watch is the three-point volume; Budenholzer’s teams have always taken a lot of threes, but this is a mid-range-heavy group with KD, Booker, Beal, and newcomer Jones.
New Orleans Pelicans: A fascinating team that could either surprise or disappoint, largely depending on the health of their superstar. Zion Williamson played a career-high 70 games last season, a feat I’m skeptical he can repeat (I have a lot of data and an unpublished article in the archives on this one). Williamson missed the Pelicans’ first-round series against the Thunder due to a hamstring injury and has yet to enter the postseason healthy. The Pelicans traded for Dejounte Murray, which could enable them to experiment with some funky and unorthodox lineups—like playing Zion with four lengthy, interchangeable players around him in Murray, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, and Brandon Ingram. They also don’t have anything close to a starting center, which could put even more pressure on Zion to stay healthy. Brandon Ingram’s unhappiness with his contract situation and C.J. McCollum’s potential move to the bench are two other things to monitor. The unpredictability, roster construction, and high variance of possible outcomes make this one of my early-season League Pass teams to watch.
Sacramento Kings: The Kings made a splashy move by trading for 35-year-old DeMar DeRozan over the summer. Optimists see it as an upgrade that could push them back to elite offense status: Sacramento dropped from having the best offense in the NBA in 2022-23 to 14th place last season. DeRozan and Fox are two of the best clutch scorers, and DeRozan gives them another option who can generate his own offense or run pick-and-rolls to create for others. On the flip side, DeRozan, like Fox and Sabonis, prefers to operate within the three-point line, so there might be some fit and spacing problems. Defensive fit could be an even bigger issue—Harrison Barnes is a better and bigger defender, putting a lot of additional pressure on Keegan Murray as the primary option to defend bigger scorers. Sabonis is a beast on the glass and a key pillar of the NBA’s best defensive rebounding team last season. However, the Kings will be smaller this year, with not a lot of size around him to protect the rim.
Golden State Warriors: Another veteran team that’s been stuck around 45 wins the last couple of seasons, despite their aging superstar having one of his healthiest years in a while. Steph Curry played in 74 games last season—his highest total since 2016-17. At age 36, that’s another feat that will be hard to replicate. Curry still posted impressive scoring numbers, but his efficiency dropped to what is still a very good level—just not quite the top-5 player status we're used to seeing. The 34-year-old Draymond Green is in a similar situation; his decline from being the best defender in the NBA to just a very good one will be tough for the Warriors to overcome. The Warriors lost half of the 'Splash Brothers' duo in Thompson but filled the gap with interesting additions in Kyle Anderson, De'Anthony Melton, and Buddy Hield. These additions, along with Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, Kevon Looney, Gary Payton II, and Trayce Jackson-Davis, make them one of the deepest teams in the West. However, they seem to be fighting against a generational and stylistic play gap. We’ll see if Curry, Green, and Steve Kerr can convince Kuminga and Wiggins to buy into the Warriors’ style of basketball.
Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James and Anthony Davis had great summers, playing key roles on a Team USA gold medal-winning Olympic squad full of stars, so ranking the Lakers tenth feels strange. However, when you consider that LeBron will turn 40 in December and that the 47 wins the Lakers got last season was their highest total since their title run in 2019-20, it starts to make more sense. LeBron and AD each played over 70 games last season—a feat they hadn’t come close to achieving in any of their previous years in LA and one that seems unrealistic to replicate. The Lakers didn’t make any significant upgrades in the offseason, besides replacing Darvin Ham with JJ Redick, which makes me believe that the 47 wins they achieved last season are likely the ceiling for this team.
Houston Rockets: Another intriguing team, full of young talent and athletes. Along with the Pelicans, they’re at the top of my League Pass watch-list priorities. The Rockets won 41 games last season, and it seems like this young team can only improve. One thing’s for sure: they’ll continue to defend and be one of the most aggressive teams in the league with Ime Udoka and Dillon Brooks leading the charge. They added Reed Sheppard, the 3rd overall draft pick, to what is already an overflowing pool of young talent in Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green, Cam Whitmore, and Tari Eason. t seems they’re still a year away from figuring out who to run the offense through (Green or Sengun), seeing if Thompson can develop any resemblance of an outside shot, and waiting for Smith Jr. to become one of the better stretch bigs. Udoka will make them compete every night, but it’s hard to see them climbing out of the play-in spots, as they’re probably the only team without a clear All-Star. But watch out if one of their young talents makes that leap.
Los Angeles Clippers: Not much to say here after losing Paul George in the summer and enduring yet another year of Kawhi Leonard injury disappointments. They’ll move to the state-of-the-art Intuit Dome arena, but it’s going to be tough to fill it with excitement for a full season of James Harden ball.
This is it for this week. Would love to hear your view on the rankings, please leave them in the comments.
I’ll be back soon with Media Day and other training camp observations.