Western Conference Playoff Race: The Post All-Star Break Check-In
Who’s rising, who’s fading, and where the Mavericks and Lakers stand
February was one of the wildest months in recent NBA history, not just because of the blockbuster trade that sent Luka Dončić and Anthony Davis to new teams or the rescinded Mark Williams trade to the Lakers, but also with Jimmy Butler and Zach LaVine heading West and De’Aaron Fox joining forces with Victor Wembanyama.
There is no time to slow down or spend too much time recalibrating in the Western Conference. The playoff race is relentless with no real fall-off in sight. Before the season, 11 teams were projected to finish above .500, and at the All-Star break, 10 of them are right there, with the Phoenix Suns not far behind. Compare that to the East where only six teams have a winning record and the 22-33 Chicago Bulls somehow sit in the final Play-In spot.
The remaining schedule will have a big impact on the race, with the Lakers and Mavericks on opposite ends. The Mavericks have the fewest games left (26), the fewest back-to-backs (3), and one of the easiest remaining schedules. The Lakers, on the other hand, have the most games left (30), the most back-to-backs (8), and one of the toughest schedules ahead.
The Standings
As much as advanced numbers like point differential (see next section) help us evaluate a team's true potential, actual wins and losses take center stage as the regular season winds down.
Looking at the standings, a 47- to 48-win pace seems like the minimum needed to secure a top-six spot and avoid the Play-In. However, it could take more—49 to 50 wins—as it did last season, especially with many of the top teams trending up. For the Mavericks, reaching 47 wins would require at least a 17-9 finish, while 50 wins would mean going 20-6. The Lakers need to go 15-15 to hit 47 wins and 18-12 to reach 50.
Point differential and offense vs. defense trends
Point differential tells a slightly different story than the standings. Some teams, like the Lakers, rank much lower in point differential but have a stronger win-loss record thanks to their 14-9 mark in clutch games. On the other hand, the Timberwolves rank much higher in point differential but sit nearly four wins below their expected total due to a 15-19 record in close games. The Mavericks' point differential of +2.6 still ranks relatively high, but that is largely a product of their hot start. Before Christmas, they had a +7.5 point differential and were on pace for 58 wins. Since December 25, they've been in free fall, dropping to -3.2 due to Dončić’s injury and all other setbacks.
Offensive and defensive rankings highlight that the Mavericks' biggest issue has been their declining defense. Other notable trends show the Nuggets climbing into elite top-three territory on offense, Minnesota pushing toward a top-five defense, the Clippers emerging as the league’s second-best defense with Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup, and the Suns experiencing a total collapse on defense.
One elite, one great team, then everything up for grabs
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