Western Conference Playoff Picture: The Ultimate Guide to the Wild Finish
Team-by-team breakdown of the race for second—and every other spot that matters
It’s been a month since my last check-in on the Western Conference playoff race, when I tried to make sense of the West after the trade deadline shocks and a new balance of power started to form.
And just like all season long, the last month has delivered chaos. Some things haven’t changed: there’s still one elite team sitting at the top. But everything else? Completely up for grabs.
The play-in race has been reshaped by injuries, and the standings shift almost daily. Back in February, I called the Lakers and Mavs the West’s biggest wild cards. That’s still true, though in very different ways now. The Lakers have turned into the most unpredictable—and possibly most dangerous—team no one wants to face. Meanwhile, any hopes for Dallas disappeared fast, first with the Anthony Davis injury, then with Kyrie Irving’s devastating ACL tear.
With most teams now past the 70-game mark, we’re officially in the home stretch—just 11 to 13 games left to sort out the madness. Right now, there are eight legit teams battling for the top eight spots, and the difference between the 2-seed and the 6-seed is just four games. After that, there’s a clear drop-off. Three teams—Sacramento, Phoenix, and Dallas—are still fighting for the final two spots in the play-in, but there’s real separation between the top eight and the group just trying to hang on.
Today’s highlights:
Standings, rankings, trends, and remaining strength of schedule
Oklahoma City Thunder
Houston Rockets
Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Lakers
Memphis Grizzlies
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Mavericks and the mess at the bottom of the play-in spots
Standings, rankings, trends, and remaining strength of schedule
Before I break down each team individually, here’s a quick note on the process and data sources I used to frame the picture:
ESPN standings and Basketball Power Index (BPI) projections
Cleaning the Glass for point differential, offensive/defensive rankings and trends
Tankathon for remaining strength of schedule
And I parsed NBA game log data to get a better read on recent rotations and injury patterns
I’ll reference advanced data and projections throughout, but the closer we get to the finish line, the more the simple stuff—like the actual standings—starts to matter most. Here’s the latest look at the Western Conference standings:
However, as anyone who follows my breakdowns knows, point differential is often a better indicator of a team’s true strength than win-loss record alone.
If you compare the standings to point differential rankings, a few discrepancies jump out—most notably the Lakers and the Timberwolves. The Lakers rank much lower in point differential but have a stronger win-loss record, thanks in large part to their 20–13 mark in clutch games. On the flip side, the Timberwolves sit four games back in the standings despite a much better point differential, dragged down by an 18–25 record in close games.
The Lakers are also one of the teams that made a drastic overhaul at the trade deadline by swapping Anthony Davis for Luka Dončić. The Warriors, who added Jimmy Butler, fall into that category as well. For teams like these, full-season rankings are less useful since they’ve essentially become different versions of themselves post-deadline. Other teams have dealt with extended injury absences, which also skews the numbers. Nevertheless, here are the offensive and defensive trend rankings for all teams still in the race. I’ll refer back to some of these patterns throughout the team-by-team breakdowns that follow.
One last important factor to consider is the remaining schedule. Below is the breakdown for the Western Conference, ranked by remaining strength of schedule (SOS)—from the toughest to the easiest.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 57–12
Last 10 games: 9–1
Remaining schedule: 13 games left; 20th toughest schedule
Key matchups: Lakers (2x), Rockets (1x), Grizzlies (1x), Clippers (1x)
Recent rotation and injury outlook:
BPI projection: 67 wins, 1st place in the West
Final verdict: Not much to add here, the Thunder are having a historic season. They’re still on pace to finish with the highest point differential in over 20 years of Cleaning the Glass data—better than the 73-win Warriors, the 67-win Spurs of 2015–16, or any recent contender. They will be the number one seed in the West. The only intriguing wrinkle left is on the other side of the bracket: how much tactical positioning will teams do to avoid the 4 and 5 spots, which lead to a second-round matchup with OKC?
Houston Rockets
Record: 45–25
Last 10 games: 8–2
Remaining schedule: 12 games left; 10th toughest schedule
Key matchups: Lakers (2x), Nuggets (2x), Warriors (1x), Thunder (1x), Clippers (1x)
Recent rotation and injury outlook:
BPI projection: 52 wins, 2nd place in the West
Final verdict: The Rockets have been one of the more steady, hardest-playing, and elite defensive teams all season—they currently rank second in defense. They hit a lull when Fred VanVleet missed extended time (they’re 10–9 this season without their veteran point guard), but they’ve bounced back strong, winning 9 of their last 10, although against a relatively soft schedule.
BPI projects them to finish second, but I’m not fully convinced. They’ll play four big games against direct rivals for that spot: two against the Nuggets and two against the Lakers. They’re just 19–17 this season against teams with a .500 or better record.
Denver Nuggets
Record: 44–26
Last 10 games: 5-5
Remaining schedule: 12 games left; 12th toughest schedule
Key matchups: Rockets (2x), Warriors (1x), Timberwolves (1x), Grizzlies (1x)
Recent rotation and injury outlook:
BPI projection: 51 wins, 3rd place in the West
Final verdict: Denver looked like they were emerging as the second great team in the West back in February, as their offense climbed into elite territory. They currently rank second. But their defense continues to trend in the opposite direction. At 23rd, they’re the only team among the West’s top eight that isn’t clearly above average on that end.
Nikola Jokić, who once again carried a huge load, has been banged up and missed the last couple of games—same with Jamal Murray. The Nuggets have several tough games remaining against direct rivals and have been even worse than the Rockets in those matchups, with a 15–18 record against teams above .500. It’ll be interesting to see whether they prioritize rest and health or push hard for the 2nd seed.
Los Angeles Lakers
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