2024-25 Mavericks Player Cards: Dante Exum

Will next season be a step forward or a step backward?

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Dante Exum might be the Mavericks' biggest mystery—few other players on the roster have such a wide range of potential outcomes.

The 29-year-old Aussie and former lottery pick made a comeback to the NBA last season after spending two years in Europe. Bringing Exum back from overseas was another attempt by Mavericks GM Nico Harrison to find a capable third ball-handler behind Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. It was a low-risk, high-reward move that turned out to be one of the better success stories of the first half of last season, especially after previous failed gambles on Facundo Campazzo and Kemba Walker.

The expectations were low for Exum, but he exceeded even those of the biggest believers in December when he filled in as a starter (13 of his 17 starts were in December) after Irving missed significant time due to a foot injury. Exum averaged 31.1 minutes, 15.3 points, 4.5 assists, and 3.8 rebounds during that month.

Throughout that stretch, Exum proved to be the ultimate glue guy: someone who could handle, drive, and pass the ball, but also play off it and hit a catch-and-shoot three if he got it back. His size, length, and athleticism were exactly what the Mavericks needed at the guard position, as was his ability to apply pressure and defend the opponent's best ball handlers. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Mavericks outscored opponents by +11.7 points in 1,068 minutes with Exum on the floor last season. This was the second-best mark on the team; only lineups featuring Dončić were better, at +11.9.

There is also the downside, and with Exum, the first concern is always injuries. After his hot stretch in December, he missed 22 of the next 24 games in January and February due to various knee- and foot-related problems. He didn't average more than 6.4 points per game in any month other than December. The playoffs were even more worrying; Exum was the first guard off the bench at the start of the series against the Clippers but never looked comfortable. He made only one shot on 11 attempts in the first four games and fell out of the rotation for the remainder of the Mavericks' Finals run. Exum averaged just 2.0 points on 35.0 percent shooting in 6.9 minutes per game during the playoffs.

Was last December a fluke, or can Exum reclaim his role as the primary ball-handler off the bench amid increased competition from Spencer Dinwiddie's return and Jaden Hardy's potential next step?

2023-24 key stats: 55 games played, 17 starts | 19.8 minutes, 7.8 points, 2.9 assists, 2.7 rebounds per game | 43.1 percent field goal

Projected role in 2023-24: Fourth or fifth ball-handler off the bench. See early August rotation analysis for more details.

Archetype on offense: Secondary ball-handler

Archetype on defense: Primary on-ball defender, primary wing defender

A stat that stands out: The most obvious one is the three-point shooting, which I'll get into shortly. But the part of Exum's game I have the most confidence in is his ability to push the pace and attack the paint. Exum was the best Maverick at pushing the pace and a major factor in the Mavericks' surprising metamorphosis into a top-ten transition team last season, with plenty of data to back this up. The Mavericks scored 2.0 points more per 100 possessions in transition with Exum on the floor, the best mark on the team and in the top 92nd percentile in the NBA. Second Spectrum tracking data also shows that the Mavericks were quicker to cross half-court, initiated their first action faster, and had more paint touches with Exum on the floor.

Exum's first instinct is to drive and attack the paint, which often generates quick advantages and forces opposing defenses into rotation. Nearly half (45 percent) of his shots last season were at the rim, the highest mark for any non-center on the team.

A stat that makes me think: It's the aforementioned three-point percentage. Exum shot just 30.4 percent over his first seven seasons in the NBA, but he made an impressive 49.1 percent from beyond the arc last regular season as a Maverick. This was the second-best mark among all NBA players with at least 100 three-point attempts; only Aaron Wiggins, at 49.2 percent, was better.

Exum's ability to hit open spot-up threes kept him on the floor during the regular season, but it also led to his downfall in the playoffs, where he became hesitant to shoot after his early struggles.

Was his shooting in the regular season an outlier? Most likely, yes. He shot +13.8 percentage points better than expected based on the quality of his shots, by far the highest mark on the team. But there is a larger sample that suggests Exum improved as a shooter during his two years overseas; he shot 41.2 percent from three on 267 attempts in Europe. The main problem isn't his accuracy; it's the time he takes to release his three-point shot. His form appears mechanical with a slow release. According to tracking data, he had the longest gather and motion time on three-point attempts among all Mavericks last season. This becomes far more problematic in the playoffs, where teams close out faster, leaving much less time and space to shoot.

Key play that intrigued (and I would like to see more of): I've already highlighted Exum's ability to push the ball and get things moving in transition. A positive side effect of this was Dončić getting early spot-up opportunities, either on fast breaks or early in the shot clock following Exum's drives.

Dončić was assisted on 22 percent of his made field goals last season, the highest mark since his rookie season. Growing chemistry with Kyrie Irving was the main reason for Dončić's increased willingness to give up the ball. Exum was probably second. Exum ranked second to Irving in assists to Dončić with 26, and he actually led the team on a per-100-possession basis (here's a reminder of why that matters).

Key Question: Can Exum reclaim his role as the first guard off the bench?

If Exum can return to the level of play he showed during the last regular season, he’s almost an ideal complement to Dončić and Irving. None of the other guards on the bench can match his combination of size, speed, defensive prowess, and ability to play both on and off the ball.

But for that to happen, Exum needs to stay healthy and confident in his shot for an extended period. Unfortunately, neither of those things has happened consistently throughout his career. Dallas has two players, Dinwiddie and Hardy, none lacking confidence and both motivated to take over his role. This will put more pressure on Exum than he faced at the beginning of last season.

What’s next (what to expect next season): In my early August rotation analysis, I predicted that Dinwiddie could end up with the third ball-handler role over Exum, but it’s an open battle that will start in training camp and likely continue throughout the remainder of the regular season. I'm sure Exum will get plenty of opportunities to win that job, and the Mavericks were at their best last year when they unleashed an all-defense bench mob of Exum, Dereck Lively II, Josh Green, and Maxi Kleber. Personally, I'd love to see that lineup return, this time with Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes taking over for the departed Green and Derrick Jones Jr.

However, we also can't overlook the fact that Exum is 29 with a long history of injury problems. He missed 27 games last season and hasn't played more than 66 games in a season since his rookie year in 2014-15. I expect the Mavericks to be cautious with Exum's load and minutes to try to keep him healthy for the playoffs.

When the playoffs arrive, Exum will need to prove he can be effective when the game slows down and turns into more of a half-court grind. His Olympic Games quarterfinal performance against Serbia—where he excelled in the first half when Australia was running but disappeared in the second half when things got tight—doesn't inspire confidence that he'll be able to do that. Nor does the Mavericks' signing of Dinwiddie as an insurance policy.

Exum has managed to transform his game in the past and prove his critics wrong, so there’s hope he can do it again—proving not only that he can crack an NBA rotation but also stay there once the playoffs come around.