Lakers-Wolves Series Preview: Luka and his Playoffs X-Factor

Dončić looks to be peaking at the right time, and the Timberwolves might be in trouble

Photo by Icon Sportswire / Getty Images

It’s playoff week, which means content is ramping up. I’ll have full Mavs-Grizzlies observations tomorrow (no written preview today, but I’ll drop some quick thoughts in our chat later if you’re interested).

On Sunday, I’ll be back with Game 1 observations from Lakers-Timberwolves. But before that, I wanted to do one more Luka deep-dive—because on Saturday, all eyes will be on him. Lakers fans. Mavs fans. NBA fans and media.

Playoff series are chess matches. A lot depends on Xs and Os, on who forces the first adjustment—and then who finds the counters, and the counters to those counters. I wrote about some of those key tactical layers in my Lakers-Timberwolves series preview.

All of that matters. It sets the stage for stars to either rise or fall. But at the end of the day, playoff series are still decided by stars being stars—and playing like it. Nobody knows this better than the Timberwolves, who ran into Luka Dončić in last year’s Western Conference Finals. Dončić dominated that series—he averaged 32.4 points per game while shooting 43 percent from three, hit the infamous Game 2 winner over Rudy Gobert, and closed things out with a 36-point demolition in Game 5.

Now, it’s hard—or is it, with Dončić?—to expect the exact same series to unfold against the same opponent. The Timberwolves will be motivated to do everything they can to prevent it. And this season, for the most part, Dončić hasn’t looked like the player we saw in the Conference Finals, despite some early flashes in his first games with the Lakers. In fact, there was a prolonged stretch that prompted me to do a whole deep-dive section titled “Luka’s confidence and rhythm not there. Yet?” just 14 days ago.

But as we’ve seen with Dončić before, things can turn around quickly. Over the past two weeks, he delivered his first true signature performance as a Laker in a dominant win over the league’s best regular-season team, Oklahoma City. Then came a 45-point eruption in his emotional return to Dallas—a performance his coach, J.J. Redick, called superhuman.

Diggin’—this is digginbasketball, after all—into the data and film, there’s a clear upward trajectory in Dončić’s recent play. One that should make Lakers fans feel optimistic heading into his first playoff series in purple and gold.

Bounce, drives, and finishing are back

The biggest concern during most of Dončić’s early Lakers tenure was his inside-the-arc scoring—especially his finishing in the paint. It wasn’t at the elite level we’ve come to expect from him, the level that made him a first-team All-NBA selection five years in a row.

If you revisit the deep-dive I did two weeks ago, Dončić was shooting just 38 percent on short mid-range shots and 37 percent overall from mid-range—both well below his career norms. Throughout his career, Dončić’s three-point shooting has gone through hot and cold stretches—but his inside-the-arc and paint finishing has always been a constant, the foundation he could rely on. This season, however, after the trade and his return from a calf injury, that part of his game took a noticeable dip. There was a prolonged stretch of nearly 20 games where Dončić rarely cracked the 50 percent mark on his two-point attempts.

However, over the last two weeks, his inside-the-arc finishing has taken a sharp turn in the right direction. Dončić has shot 50 percent or better on at least five two-point attempts in each of his last eight games, going 50-of-85 overall—that’s 59 percent inside the arc.

So, what changed?

First, we can’t underestimate how difficult the post-trade period was—or how much of a mental toll the trade seemed to take on Dončić. On top of the mental toll, there were physical challenges too. Dončić was trying to regain his game conditioning and rhythm after the longest injury layoff of his career. Both factors culminated in a lack of confidence, leading to awkward drives, indecisive finishes in the paint, and frequent attempts to draw fouls instead of focusing on scoring.

Now, more than two months in, Dončić seems to finally be settling into his new reality as a Laker. With nearly 30 games alongside his new teammates, the chemistry appears to be growing with each outing. Physically, he looks much better than he did when he first returned from injury. The playfulness and smile are back—and so is the most important thing for his game: the confidence.

Dončić will never be the fastest player or someone who consistently blows by defenders on the perimeter. But he does need that subtle burst—a half-step to create an advantage and get his defender on his hip. And just as important, he needs the confidence to finish once he gets there. Over the past two weeks, both have returned, and the difference has been obvious—even without looking at the data.

Inside-the-arc game will be key in the playoffs