Stats With Context: 30-Game Check

And the look at the Luka-less near future

Photo by Sam Hodde / Getty Images

The Mavericks sit at a 19-11 record through 30 games, making this the perfect time for Stats With Context: 30-Game Check.

With a back-to-back weekend against the Suns and Trail Blazers ahead—two teams Dallas has already faced twice this season—I decided to skip the usual game previews and dive into this check instead. If you’re curious about those matchups, you can find the last Suns preview [here] and Trail Blazers preview [here].

Throughout the season, I'll keep checking in with these Stats With Context breakdowns every 10 games, or at other critical points like the trade deadline, to track meaningful shifts. For those who like to compare 30 games with prior snapshots, you can find the 10-game check [here] and 20-game check [here].

Unfortunately, this isn’t the kind of 30-game check I was hoping to write. With the news that Luka Dončić is set to miss at least a month—potentially the next 20 games—this check shifts focus to bracing for what’s ahead. Instead of diving into the exciting past, we’ll focus on the key data points that will define the near Luka-less future. The next 40- and 50-game checks will be all about how the Mavericks navigate this challenging stretch and try to stay afloat in the wild Western Conference.

NOTE: I use Cleaning the Glass data for most of my team rankings in this article.

---

Today’s highlights:

1. Overall point differential and four factors rankings

2. The crazy, tight Western Conference race

3. Mavericks games and key player stats without Dončić

4. On/Off splits and the looming challenge of non-Irving minutes

5. Setting the table for Klay

6. Kyrie’s load under a grueling schedule

---

1-Overall point differential and four factors rankings

Context: Monitoring point differential and the four factors has been a staple in every Stats With Context check, and the current numbers tell us quite a bit. The Mavericks' net rating is trending up, now sitting at +7.5, a mark of a very good team. After early-season clutch struggles kept their record lagging, the Mavericks' 19-11 record has finally caught up with their point differential.

In a recent deep dive, I noted that this +7.5 point differential is the Mavericks' best since the 2006-07 season. Models based on the past 25 years of data project a 58-win season with that differential. For context, Dallas sits among the NBA’s seven truly elite teams in point differential:

• Cleveland: +12.3

• OKC: +11.6

• Memphis: +10.6

• Boston: +10.4

• New York: +8.9

• Houston: +8.3

• Dallas: +7.5

After Dallas, there’s a big drop to Orlando at +3.7.

However, that 58-win projection didn’t account for Luka Dončić’s extended absence. The key question now is simple: how far will the Mavericks fall without him? I’ll dive into this question in the points that follow.

2-The crazy, tight Western Conference race

Context: A quick look at the Western Conference race is always a must in these checks, especially with how tight and unpredictable things have been this season. Before diving deeper into the Mavericks’ place in the mix, here are a few standout observations:

• The top three teams in the conference standings—OKC, Houston, and Memphis—continue to dominate with defense, ranking as the 1st, 2nd, and 4th best defensive teams in the NBA, respectively.

• Minnesota, last season’s best defensive team, is steadily climbing back toward the top, currently ranked 5th in defensive rating. The Clippers at 6th, another frisky team, are hanging on largely because of their defense.

• Five of the best six defensive teams reside in the Western Conference, another sign of how hard the conference battles are—and why the Mavericks staying around the top 10 range is so important.

• The Suns, on the other hand, have seen their recent slide fueled by a defensive collapse. Golden State is another team trending down, struggling on both offense and defense.

• The Lakers (17-13) have exceeded their point differential more than any other team. Both their offensive and defensive trends suggest they aren’t as strong as their record implies.

3- Mavericks games and key player stats without Dončić