Offseason Mailbag: Luka’s Summer, AD’s Fit, and Ayton’s Efficiency
Your questions on EuroBasket, Mavericks frontcourt fit, more Lakers offseason moves, and other summer storylines
The biggest offseason moves are behind us, and I’ve been covering most of them here on digginbasketball. From deep-dives and breakdowns of the Lakers’ key signings like Deandre Ayton and Jake LaRavia to reactions to the Mavericks signing D’Angelo Russell and filling out their ballhandling needs, the last couple of weeks have been busy. Before that, we covered draft reactions and wrapped it up with Summer League notes, including early impressions of Cooper Flagg, thoughts on Bronny James' role, and other takeaways on intriguing players like Ryan Nembhard, Dalton Knecht and Darius Bazley.
Like much of the NBA, I’m on the move for most of the summer (more on that in the next section). While working through a bigger offseason data project, this felt like a good moment for a quick Summer Mailbag Q&A.
As always, thanks to everyone who sent me questions via our chat or directly via messages.
Today’s questions:
Summer travels, Luka and EuroBasket notes, and what's next
More on Mavericks big strategy and AD's fit
How will Deandre Ayton look next to elite playmaker(s)?
Josh Okogie and the Lakers roster crunch
1-Summer travels, Luka and EuroBasket notes, and what's next
Reader Robbie asked if I’m based in Europe or the U.S., and another follower asked if I could explain more about EuroBasket—whether Luka is playing and which other stars might be there.
For all new readers, I’m based in Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia. It’s where Luka Dončić is from and where he started playing basketball as a teenage prodigy. Like every summer for the past ten years, I’m spending most of July on the Greek island of Lefkada, splitting my days between morning offseason data projects (some of which you’ve seen in the NBA league trend series, with more hopefully coming soon) and afternoon windsurfing and wing foiling sessions.
The place I’m at happens to be just around 250 miles from Athens, where an exclusive Jordan Brand event took place recently. Luka Dončić was one of the main stars, alongside Bam Adebayo, another Laker Rui Hachimura, ex-Laker Carmelo Anthony, Zion Williamson, and other Jordan Brand athletes.
The Slovenian national team will start their 2025 EuroBasket training camp on July 23, with Dončić expected to join at the start of August. Dončić and Slovenia will face off against the current FIBA World Champions, Germany, in an exhibition game in Ljubljana on August 8. I plan to be there and cover it for you here on digginbasketball. Slovenia will open their EuroBasket campaign in Poland on August 28 against the host team, and I’ve already booked my tickets to see that one as well—along with the other two group stage games against France and Belgium.
Which other NBA stars besides Dončić are expected to play at the 2025 EuroBasket?
Two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has confirmed his participation for Greece, while three-time MVP Nikola Jokić is expected to do the same in the coming days. France will be without their two elite defensive big men, Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert, but they remain a European powerhouse. Their preliminary 18-man roster still includes six other NBA players, including the top two picks from the 2024 NBA Draft—Zaccharie Risacher and Alexandre Sarr.
Other notable NBA names expected to play include Alperen Sengun for Turkey, Kristaps Porzingis for Latvia, Santi Aldama for Spain, and Jeremy Sochan, who will be trying to slow down Dončić on opening night for Poland. It should be a fun and highly competitive tournament.
2-More on Mavericks big strategy and AD's fit
Hey Iztok, I'd be interested to see some data related to AD when he is the sole big on the floor for his team, vs when he is on with another big. — KTOWN24
Interested in comparing the effectiveness of Lively or Gafford with AD as the PF vs their effectiveness when someone else is the PF on the court with one of them as the center. — Terry
Despite the super exciting promise of Cooper Flagg and the much less compelling speculation around Kyrie Irving’s recovery timeline, it seems that questions about Anthony Davis and the Mavericks’ super big strategy are still the ones intriguing Mavs fans the most.
I totally get why looking at AD’s fit and the Mavericks’ lineup data is so intriguing. However, Davis has played only 266 minutes across 9 games as a Maverick, which is far too small a sample for any meaningful insights. For those who want to explore a much larger body of data from his career—and what we can learn from his past stretches as a power forward—check out the deep-dive I published right after the trade.
Mavericks’ New Era with Anthony Davis at Power Forward
It’s been a whirlwind of a week, with one of the most stunning trades in NBA history sending Luka Dončić and Anthony Davis to new teams and shaking up the league.
The Mavericks were very good defensively in the 199 possessions when AD played alongside either Dereck Lively II or Daniel Gafford, allowing just 110.8 points per 100 possessions. The sample is very small, but I have no doubt that once you add Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington into the mix, that ultra-big Mavericks lineup could be scary on defense next season. In my aforementioned AD deep-dive, I wrote about the Mavericks’ strategy of replicating the 2020 championship Lakers blueprint—and the reunion of that Lakers coaching staff this offseason, with Frank Vogel, Phil Handy, and Mike Penberthy all joining the bench, only reinforces that vision.
In the aftermath of the NBA Finals, I wrote about how super-sized, defensive juggernaut teams might be the response that franchises like Houston, Orlando, and Dallas are building to counter the ultra-aggressive but smaller OKC Thunder. The draft and free agency only reinforced that the NBA is trending big—and watching how the Mavericks’ super big strategy unfolds next season will be one of the most fascinating storylines to follow.
Circling back to the AD-at-power-forward lineup questions— even in a small sample, a familiar trend has held true last season and throughout AD’s career: those lineups tend to produce a low three-point, mid-range-heavy shot profile.
With Davis playing next to either Gafford or Lively, the Mavericks ranked in the bottom 10th percentile in three-point frequency and the top 10th percentile in long mid-range frequency. How Jason Kidd and his staff navigate that, along with the added challenge of finding the best spacing and floor spots for Flagg, is another key layer to watch next season.
3-How will Deandre Ayton look next to elite playmaker(s)?
I want to see Ayton’s efficiency numbers compared to when he was in Portland vs Phoenix. Especially since he played with CP3 during the start of his career — Robbie
Deandre Ayton’s desire to play winning basketball, and more importantly his ability to back it up on the court, and be part of a competitive team again after reaching the NBA Finals with the Suns in 2021 is another major storyline to watch next season.
Deandre Ayton and the Lakers: Short-Term Fix or Long-Term Solution?
After months of speculation and two long days of waiting in free agency, the Lakers finally got their most important piece in the offseason, a move that will have a cascade effect on all other future moves, by signing the 26-year-old former number one pick, the mercurial big man Deandre Ayton. The Lakers agreed to
I wrote about the 'Luka effect' in my full Ayton breakdown and shared this data that might shed some light on Robbie’s question:
It’s easy to imagine Ayton thriving with better, more efficient looks orchestrated by Dončić. In fact, there’s already evidence that Ayton is an elite finisher when playing off elite playmakers or scorers. He converted 63 percent of his 1,333 career shots that came off passes from either Chris Paul or Devin Booker, compared to just 58 percent on 3,589 shots created by all other teammates.
Ayton is one of the better finishers in the NBA, and I believe Dončić, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves are super intelligent playmakers who will find ways to best utilize his talents. The way Dončić enabled another talented but inconsistent player like Christian Wood is a good reference point. At times, Wood looked like a borderline All-Star—at least on offense—during his lone season in Dallas, averaging nearly 17 points, 7 rebounds, and a block per game in 2022–23.
4-Josh Okogie and the Lakers roster crunch
Another loyal reader and someone I can almost call a friend at this point, Merim asked about Josh Okogie’s fit with the Lakers.
For those not following the latest fringe free agency developments, the Charlotte Hornets waived Josh Okogie, and he is now available to sign with other NBA teams. The Lakers’ need for point-of-attack and wing defense is well documented, and it’s a hole Rob Pelinka and the front office will need to address before the season starts. Okogie could be a cheap, low-risk, and potentially valuable option to help fill that gap—at least until a bigger move comes along. Personally, I’ve always had a soft spot for aggressive on-ball defenders and watching Okogie battle Dončić up close over the years, I’ve occasionally thought about how interesting he’d be as a potential teammate. He’s a strong defender with elite steal and block rates for his position. However, seeing that same Okogie get completely ignored by the Mavericks on offense is a reminder of why he’ll be joining his fourth team as he enters his eighth NBA season. Okogie is one of the NBA’s weakest shooters—just look at all the dark blue in his career shooting splits, which consistently rank in the bottom 20th percentile from nearly every spot on the floor. The Lakers already have a similar profile on the roster in Jarred Vanderbilt, which makes Okogie’s fit more complicated.
The Lakers also don’t currently have a roster spot to spare, a situation that could change on July 20, when they must decide whether to guarantee Shake Milton’s $3 million contract for the 2025–26 season. Other potential moves, such as using expiring contracts of Maxi Kleber, Gabe Vincent, or even Rui Hachimura in a consolidation trade, could also open up a roster spot. But even if that happens, I think giving an opportunity to intriguing second-round pick Adou Thiero, who offers much more offensive upside than Okogie, is the better long-term strategy.
Another alternative I would prefer over Okogie, if the Lakers do open up a roster spot, is Darius Bazley, who stood out with his play in Summer League. He is not a point-of-attack defender, but he is a similarly gifted defensive playmaker. Bazley is also a much longer and faster player who excels in transition, and could provide some of the same non-center lob threat that Derrick Jones Jr. offered in his one season playing alongside Dončić.
Always enjoy your work. Do you think Nembhard makes the active roster? Has any impact? He has to be able to shoot given his size. There are certainly PG minutes available early on.
Good!