Stats With Context: Midseason Check-In

What we’ve learned about the Luka-less Mavericks

Photo by Sam Hodde / Getty Images

We’ve hit the 41-game mark, officially halfway through the season, so it’s time for another Stats With Context check.

With the Mavericks facing OKC tonight, I’m choosing to focus on this midseason breakdown rather than a game preview. The Mavericks have already played OKC twice this season—we know who and what they are. (If you’re still looking for insights on the Thunder, check out my last OKC preview [here]—most points about them still hold true.)

Throughout the season, I’ve been checking in with these Stats With Context breakdowns every 10 games—or at other critical moments, like the upcoming trade deadline—to track meaningful shifts. For those who like to compare snapshots, you can revisit the 10-game check [here], 20-game check [here], and 30-game check [here].

This is our fourth 10-game check, and with everything that has transpired, it feels like we’ve seen four entirely different Mavericks teams. The first team started slow, stumbling to a 5-7 record, as Luka Dončić struggled to find his rhythm. That stretch was marked by clutch losses, including a low point in Utah that underscored their early-season woes. The second team was a revelation. Without Dončić for six games during his first extended injury absence, the Mavericks found a fast and fun identity, winning five of those six games and showing the potential of a more equal-opportunity offense.

The third team was the most dominant version yet. Dončić returned looking like the best scorer in the NBA, and the Mavericks capitalized, winning 14 of their next 17 games. More importantly, Dončić adapted and fully embraced the team’s faster style of play and less heliocentric offense. As a result, the offense climbed into top-three territory, prompting me to predict a 58-win season.

Then disaster struck. Dončić’s calf injury on Christmas, followed closely by Kyrie Irving’s back problems, brought the team to its current state: a fourth version, one without its two stars, fighting for survival. This team has lost 8 of its last 10 games, desperately searching for ways to stop the bleeding and halt their slide down the standings. Watching a team that was supposed to contend struggle has been difficult, as has trying to find meaningful signals amid all the losing. Today, I’ll focus on what we’ve learned about the non-Luka and, for the most part, non-Kyrie Mavericks during this stretch.

Is there anything tangible here—anything that might matter in the long run, when the team is hopefully complete and healthy?

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Today’s highlights:

1. Overall point differential and four factors rankings

2. The crazy, tight Western Conference race

3. Is Dallas a bottom-five NBA team without Luka and Kyrie?

4. No clear third option has emerged

5. Surprising (lack of) defense

6. Dereck Lively II’s growth

7. Jason Kidd’s circle(s) of trust

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1-Overall point differential and four factors rankings

Context: If you’ve read my past 10-game checks, you know we always begin by tracking the Mavericks’ point differential and four factors rankings. In my last check, I highlighted that Dallas was part of a group of seven elite teams—Cleveland, OKC, Boston, Memphis, New York, and Houston—all boasting a +7 point differential or better. However, with the Mavericks’ recent skid, that group has now shrunk to six teams, as Dallas has fallen out. The Mavericks currently hold a +4.2 point differential, tied with Denver for 7th and 8th place, though the two teams are clearly trending in opposite directions.

What’s even more intriguing is how the non-Luka, half-Kyrie Mavericks compare to other teams, which I’ll explore in the third point.

2-The crazy, tight Western Conference race

Context: A quick look at the Western Conference race is a staple in these checks and a must for understanding the broader context. Before diving into the Mavericks' key storylines, here are a few observations about the race in the West:

• OKC, Memphis, and Houston continue their high-level play, ranking in the top 10 in both offense and defense. In my preseason projections, I had Memphis ranked third because of my trust in Taylor Jenkins to build a top-five defense. Once again, despite injuries, Jenkins and his team have delivered. It’s truly impressive.

• The Clippers are surprisingly climbing the standings, fueled by their offseason focus on defense and the additions of players like Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn. In contrast, the Suns’ decline has been largely due to their defensive struggles.

• The Timberwolves’ offense, despite some early success, has faltered without Karl-Anthony Towns’ shooting. Meanwhile, the Warriors’ offense is experiencing an even sharper decline.

• The Lakers continue to outperform their point differential and have overtaken Dallas in the standings. However, the Mavericks should still finish ahead of them if they can get healthy. On the other hand, Denver is right where you’d expect a Nikola Jokić-led team to be: a top-five offense, looking like a formidable contender that will be tough to overtake unless the Mavericks’ health situation improves soon.

3-Is Dallas a bottom-five NBA team without Luka and Kyrie?

Context: At the start of the season, the Mavericks’ depth was a major talking point, fueling optimism even when news of Dončić’s injury broke. The belief was that this roster had enough talent to remain competitive during a prolonged stretch without its superstar. However, when Irving joined his “hermano” in street clothes not long after, that optimism shifted to a much simpler question: Is the rest of this roster better than any other team in the NBA?

The answer, unfortunately, has been "not many." Dallas has lost 8 of their 11 games since Christmas (with Irving playing in only four of them) and ranks 25th in point differential during that span. While the two wins against the Lakers and Portland were pleasant surprises, the team has otherwise struggled mightily to generate quality offense without the two primary creators around whom the entire offense is built and centered. Which brings me to my next point.

4-No clear third option has emerged